Govans, Maryland Weather Forecast Discussion

396
FXUS61 KLWX 170052
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
852 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will slowly drift northwestward toward the area
through Wednesday, before weakening and departing off toward the
northeast on Thursday. Thereafter, high pressure will build in
and remain in control through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A strong area of low pressure has continued to drift towards
the northwest, with the center of circulation now over the VA
portion of the Delmarva Peninsula. Bands of rain, heavy at
times, along with a few isolated rumbles of thunder, have been
pushing through the region all afternoon/evening. The heaviest
of those bands, which is on the NW side of the approaching low
pressure system, has now pushed into the middle Chesapeake Bay
and into southern MD. Gusty winds are still being observed in
southern MD, but especially over the waters (see more details in
the marine discussion below).
Showers will continue on and off through the night across the
entire area, with the coverage and frequency of showers being
the greatest across southern Maryland, where they`ll be closest
to the area of low pressure. However, the continued bands of
showers have been very productive, with areas receiving a quick
half inch to an inch of rain this afternoon/evening. So, really
anywhere, primarily east of the Blue Ridge, could see some
heavier elements at times overnight. Thunderstorms may be
possible at times across Southern Maryland into the overnight as
elevated instability remains present in that area. Winds will
remain gusty out of the northeast through tonight, with gusts
of 20-30 mph possible at times, mainly along/east of I-95.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned area of low pressure will continue to linger
across southeastern Virginia through the day tomorrow. Showers
will remain possible on and off through the day, although the
bulk of the time should remain dry. Most guidance suggests that
a weak surface boundary will extend from the area of low
pressure northeastward across Southern Maryland. Some CAMs hint
that thunderstorms may form in the vicinity of this boundary
tomorrow afternoon. Model soundings in that area show deep
saturated profiles, with weak surface based instability,
precipitable water values around 1.75 inches, and relatively
weak steering flow. As a result, any thunderstorms that do form
may be capable of producing heavy rainfall, and a low-end threat
for flooding exists. With ongoing drought, it would likely take
several inches of rainfall in a short time period to cause
issues. Elsewhere, low clouds will persist through most, if not
all of the day, helping to keep temperatures below normal. High
temperatures will be in the upper 60s and low 70s for most.
Showers will wind down tomorrow evening, leading to dry
conditions during the second half of the night.
The surface low and a parent upper trough will both weaken and
lift off to our northeast on Thursday. This will enable high
pressure to start to build in at the surface. Skies are expected
to trend toward mostly sunny during the afternoon hours
following a mostly cloudy start to the day. High temperatures
are forecast to reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level troughing pivoting north of New England on Friday will
move offshore ahead of deep upper trough approaching the region from
the central CONUS. At the surface, a moisture starved cold front is
forecast to drop through the forecast area on Friday. While no
precipitation is expected with the frontal passage, temperatures
will be noticeably cooler in the wake of the front. High temperatures
on Friday will be in the 80s for most (70s mtns). In the wake of the
front, highs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 70s for most.
Precipitation chances return Monday as the aforementioned front
lifts north through the area as warm front. Temperatures will
gradually warm with highs in the 70s to low 80s (60s mtns). A lack
of moisture with the front will limit precipitation chances to 20%
or less across the southern portions of the area.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Periods of showers will continue through much of the overnight
for all terminals as an area of low pressure moves northeast
towards the region. CIGs remain VFR for the most part right
now, but starting to see a stronger presence of SCT020 to SCT030
as rain continues and lower clouds start to build in from the
southeast. CIGs will gradually drop to MVFR and then eventually
IFR later tonight, then likely stay that way through much of
the day tomorrow. However, there could be a brief reprieve on
Wednesday afternoon to MVFR, but only for a few hours.
Showers will occur on and off through the day tomorrow.
Conditions should then drop back to IFR tomorrow night.
Improvement back to VFR conditions is expected on Thursday.
Winds will be out of the northeast today, and may gust to around
20-30 knots at times. Winds will remain out of the northeast
tonight, before turning out of the north tomorrow, and then
northwest on Thursday.
Northwest winds on Friday shift to east/northeast overnight into
Saturday in the wake of a cold front moving through the area. No
precipitation and VFR conditions are expected across all terminals
both days.
&&
.MARINE...
A coastal low, currently moving across the VA portion of the
Delmarva Peninsula, will slowly drift northwestward tonight
into Wednesday. Gale Warnings remain in effect for the lower
Tidal Potomac and middle Bay through 2 AM, and Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect elsewhere through tonight. SCAs have
also been extended through the day tomorrow in gusty northerly
flow.
Sub-SCA level northwesterly winds are expected on Thursday as
the area of low pressure departs the region.
Northwest winds over the waters on Friday shift to east/northeast on
Saturday in the wake of a cold front moving over the waters. Winds
remain below SCA criteria on Friday before increasing to right below
SCA criteria winds on Saturday afternoon.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A strong area of low pressure is pushing towards the northwest
from southeastern VA this evening. A strong push of northerly
winds has actually dropped tidal anomalies this evening, thus
staving off any coastal flooding for now. However, as the low
approaches, winds will shift to more of an onshore flow, rather
than due north. This will likely result in a pretty rapid
increase in tidal anomalies, especially given the strength of
winds associated with the aforementioned low and the already
elevated tidal anomalies across the southern Chesapeake Bay.
There could be a snapback tide sometime later this week when
winds slacken and the coastal low dissipates, which would likely
continue to result in elevated tidal anomalies.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ016.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530-531-
     538-539.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ532-533-540-541.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ534-537-542-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ535-536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...CJL/KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/CJL/KJP
MARINE...AVS/CJL/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion