Grandview Heights, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

390
FXUS61 KRNK 201803
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
203 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Will see some increase in clouds today as a backdoor front
tracks across the area. With limited moisture, expect only
spotty showers and storms mainly in the mountains. The front
works back north Sunday as high pressure works back in. Low
pressure over the central U.S. slowly tracks east toward the
Appalachians by the middle to late part of next week increasing
our chances for showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
1) A few showers/storms possible this afternoon in the mountains
and perhaps toward Lynchburg.
A weak backdoor front will track south this afternoon and
situated over the NC/VA border this evening before retreating
north Sunday. Two smaller upper level disturbances, one over
northern VA and the other in the TN Valley may bring enough lift
to trigger a few showers/storms mainly north of I-64 this
afternoon/evening and across the southwest VA/southeast WV
mountains and possibly the NRV. Overall coverage is spotty.
Temperature were running warmer than previous forecast so bumped
highs up a couple degrees mainly along/east of the Blue Ridge,
so may see places like Danville/South Boston/Yanceyville
approach 90. Any cloud cover or showers will keep it cooler in
the mountains but still looking at mid or upper 70s in the
higher ridges.
Tonight, cloud cover and a few areas of spotty rain linger in
the wedge across the Blue Ridge before dissipating late tonight.
Cloud cover will likely stay socked in north of U.S. 460 into
Sunday morning, then clearing Sunday afternoon, as the front
retreats north. With increasing moisture, lows tonight will
range from the mid to upper 50s west to lower 60s east.
Given potential slow erosion of clouds Sunday, have highs cooler
in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with some lower to mid 70s in the
mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
Key Messages:
1) Cutoff low beings to approach the Mid-Atlantic.
2) Multiple chances of precipitation next week.
A wedge in our mountains will weaken as a surface high pressure to
our northeast moves into the ocean. Remnant higher pressure will
still remain in the Mid-Atlantic as a large upper level cutoff low
pressure system starts to move east from the Great Plains. The
cutoff low will move slowly and will likely not reach our vicinity
until late next week. There was a mention in yesterday`s forecast
about a second upper level low to our north. That low is still
present in recent weather models, but it looks to be weaker and
potentially get absorbed by the cutoff low as it migrates east.
As the cutoff low approaches, it will direct several
perturbations into the Mid-Atlantic and provide a chance of
precipitation every afternoon for the first half of next week.
500mb winds will be somewhat westerly, if not barely
southwesterly, so many storms will likely be upslope based. The
remnant higher pressure prevents higher precipitation chances
for most of the region so the greatest likelihood (30-50%) will
be toward the more western and mountainous counties. Rain
chances drop significantly east of the Blue Ridge. PWATs are
projected to be unusually high for this time of year with values
as high as 1.0-1.5" (75th-90th percentile range). Some of these
showers and thunderstorms could be relatively efficient in
producing heavy rain, but given dry/drought conditions, this may
not be a bad thing (assuming there is no training of heavy
showers over the same area). Otherwise, cloud cover will likely
return for most of the area and temperatures may remain a little
warmer than average with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s
and lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
Key Message:
1) Cutoff low to slowly approach the east coast and add challenges
to the forecast.
A cutoff low is sometimes referred to as a "weatherman`s woe"
for good reasons. Small changes in what model guidance suggests
the approaching cutoff low will do will have a significant
influence on precipitation chances, severe weather risk,
potential rainfall amounts, winds, and temperatures. There is
consensus, thankfully, that a cutoff low will continue it make
its way through CONUS and broadly head eastward. A north-south
oriented cold front linked to the cutoff low to its south will
move eastward with it while a west- east oriented cold front
will stretch into the Atlantic from the cutoff low and meander
across the Ohio River Valley and Mid- Atlantic. The cutoff low`s
movement is currently expected to be very slow and its center
may not even reach our vicinity by the end of the forecast
period. Since model guidance has been changing the specific
trajectory and strength of the low with each new update, it is
difficult to narrow down threats and impacts with this system.
At this point, it is possible that warm and additional moist air
will build up in the area. Surface conditions will get
considerably humid with dew points potentially reaching 70F for
areas east of the Blue Ridge. However, air and dew point
temperatures are dependent on how the cold fronts linked to the
cutoff low behave. It is still up in the air on whether the
zonal cold front will sneak in and wedge against the Appalachian
mountains before the cutoff low arrives or if the cutoff low
stalls and the meridional aligned cold front stalls before
entering the region. The actions of these fronts alone can
heavily influence the surface temperatures and atmospheric
stability during what could be an active weather period.
However, given the high uncertainty on how the cutoff low acts
next week, there is low confidence in determining what kind of
weather could be expected.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EDT Saturday...
VFR conditions expected through well past sunset. Showers that
form will be spotty and not seeing any TAFS yet to get close to
having a shower, but will amend as needed. "Best" chance will be
around LWB Cigs look to lower to LIFR/IFR for most sites later
tonight into Sunday morning along with possible MVFR/IFR vsbys.
Exception may be BLF with VFR.
Should see a gradual improvement to VFR between 14-17z Sunday.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR into early next week, aside from any late night fog at
mainly LWB. Low pressure system may bring us better chances for
showers by the middle of next week with potential sub-VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...AB/WP

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion