Grey Forest, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

266
FXUS64 KEWX 121900
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
200 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
...Seasonably hot weather continues with low to no chances for
rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A high amplitude upper ridge will center over Texas today
through Saturday night before shifting eastward Sunday. The deep
upper trough over the western US pushing this ridge east will
not extend into the lower latitudes so the ridge influence over
South TX will continue to hold through the weekend. While this
allows for little to no rain chances this weekend, there is
enough low level moisture stacked up over the Rio Grande for a
few daytime showers and perhaps one with a brief clap of
thunder. Above normal max temperatures, or typical seasonal values
for a stable weather pattern, are expected due to the placement
of the ridge, because the height field maxima are not
particularly high. The onshore influx of Gulf moisture will be
offset by dry air mixing from aloft, helping to put a lid on
heat index values. Morning humidities will remain plenty high
and support some areas of low cloudiness, but light winds will
allow for min temps below 70 degrees over about half the area
each night.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Early next week the upper ridging over TX continues to flatten
eastward as the Western CONUS upper trough lifts NE into the
plains states. There were prior concerns that the instability in
the eastern Pacific might trickle more energy into TX, but the
latest model runs have strengthened the subtropical ridge over
Mexico more. By the middle of next week, the upper trough over
the plains states gets some reinforcing energy to deepen back
south to where a potentially NW flow aloft pattern sets up over
TX. While the impacts on South TX may only be a degree or two in
terms of max and min temperatures, there could be a low
potential for more diurnal convection beyond just the Coastal
Prairies and Rio Grande Plains. Low moisture depth looks to be a
limiting factor, hot and mostly dry remains the narrative
through the next 7 days.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
VFR conditions are expected through tonight with occasionally gusty
southeast wind from 15-20 knots. Wind becomes light overnight at I-
35 sites before increasing again from the southeast Saturday
morning. The highest confidence for MVFR ceilings is at DRT tomorrow
morning around 12-16Z. Brief MVFR ceilings could be seen at SAT/SSF,
but confidence is too low to include in the TAF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  96  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  96  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  96  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            69  92  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  93  74  93 /   0  10   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             68  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  97  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  96  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           72  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...27

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion