Grifton, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

443
FXUS62 KMHX 100010
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
810 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move north and pass just offshore of ENC through
Wednesday. High pressure will then build back in from the north
and west through late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 745 PM Tuesday...
Radar is currently showing light returns well to the west of
the low pressure offshore, with multiple mPING reports of
drizzle. This appears to be occurring within an area of modest
isentropic ascent ahead of a warm front that is arcing from the
surface low to the coast of ENC. It`s unclear how long this will
last, but I updated the forecast to increase the chance of
light rain further west for the next few hours.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Cool and somewhat dreary conditions will
continue for the rest of the day as low pressure continues to
develop offshore along a stalled front. Showers have mostly
remained offshore so far today, but recently light returns have
shown up across NE NC, and expect scattered light precip to
continue here and as far west as the Inner Banks through this
evening. Temps have remained well below normal thanks to
widespread low/mid level clouds as well as a stiff NNE wind.
Tonight, the low off the Outer Banks will continue to develop
and drift northward. This will keep a canopy of low and mid
level clouds across Eastern NC, as well as scattered showers
(15-30% chance) along the NE NC coast and OBX. Temperatures
will hold steady along the OBX as onshore develops, while inland
temps will cool into the lower 60s overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tue...Stagnant weather conditions persist Wednesday
with a nearly stationary area of low pressure east of the
Carolinas. On the back side of this low, cool N/NE winds will
continue, as well as widespread cloud cover. Some scattered
light showers (15-25% chance) will be possible with some
enhanced convergence and low level moisture on the back side of
the low, mostly remaining north of the US 70 corridor. Highs
should reach the mid to perhaps upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...
Key Messages
- Cooler, drier conditions this week
- Coastal trough lingers, best chances of rain Wed along OBX
- Dry end to the work week as high pressure builds again
A second high builds in from the Great Lakes region Wednesday
night. There are some indications of a weak low forming along
the stalled front/coastal trough off the FL/GA/SC coast this
coming weekend into early next week as a deep positively tilted
trough moves through. It is too soon to tell what impacts, if
any, are expected with very low confidence on the timing, track,
and intensity of the low should it form. This results in a
higher degree of uncertainty for the forecast this weekend
onwards.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Thursday/...
As of 745 PM Tuesday...
Key Messages
- Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions through Wednesday
 - Gusty north winds through around 03z/11pm this evening
An area of low pressure will slowly move north off the coast of
NC over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, a weakening warm front
will advance west through parts of ENC, then more or less
dissipate as the low pulls further away from the area. Just
ahead of this front, a modest pressure gradient will continue to
support a risk of gusty north winds (20-25kt) through about 03z
this evening. There will also be periods of -DZ, especially
from KEWN south through KMRH.
Widespread low-level moisture in the wraparound flow of the low
will support MVFR/IFR CIGs through Wednesday (and likely beyond
then). The greatest risk of IFR conditions looks to be from now
through about 15-18z Wednesday. Guidance differs on how quickly
conditions will improve from IFR to MVFR, but it appears the
afternoon hours will have the greatest chance of improvement. A
reinforcing cold front moving through the area during the day
Wednesday may support a round of SCT SHRA with briefly reduced
VIS and CIGs.
LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Lingering low ceilings are possible into
Wednesday night with a slow moving low off the NC coast.
Thereafter, generally VFR flight conditions expected through
the long term, with gusty N/NE winds along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Tue...
Key Messages...
- Strong Small Craft conditions continue through tonight, with
  improving marine conditions tomorrow
Winds remain NNE at 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts early this
afternoon, with a stalled front offshore and low pressure
developing along it. It`s expected that winds should shift to
the NE and then E and weaken tonight across much of the waters
as the low drifts north. By early tomorrow morning winds should
become N to NNW at 10-20 kts, and increase slightly through the
day tomorrow. Seas are still 6-10 ft across the coastal waters,
but should soon decrease to 5-8 ft by early tonight. 4-7 ft
seas likely continue for most of tomorrow.
LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Winds fall below 25kts Wednesday, but near Small Craft
  Advisory conditions continue through the remainder of the work
  week
- Another chance for Small Craft Advisory conditions late
  Friday into the weekend
Seas continue to abate as winds ease into Thursday with seas 3-5
ft. Trough strengthens offshore, maybe resulting in a weak low,
as we approach the weekend. This will result in gusty
north/northeasterly winds 25-30kt late Friday into the weekend.
Higher than normal level of uncertainty with the magnitude of
the winds at the end of the long term period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 745 PM Tuesday...
The combination of persistent (but sub- gale) northeast winds,
and higher than normal astronomical tides will continue to
produce elevated waters levels through most of the work week.
Depending on wind and tide fluctuations, water levels will
likely be a few feet above normal, and as much as 1 to 2 feet
AGL (above ground level). The highest water levels are expected
along the southern Pamlico Sound and adjacent tidal rivers and
creeks, as well as across Core and Bogue Sounds. In this area, a
Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect to highlight the
potential for minor impacts. Higher water levels are also
expected oceanside, especially north of Cape Hatteras, and
should be limited to minor beach and dune erosion. Areas outside
of dune protection, or where dunes have been weakened by
previous storms, there will continue to be the potential for
minor ocean overwash, with water possible over some sections of
HWY 12 (as was observed during this morning`s high tide).
Because of this, a Coastal Flood Advisory was re-issued for this
evening`s high tide.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ094-
     194>196-199.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ131-135-
     137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...SGK/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion