495 FXUS64 KLIX 161746 AFDLIXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1246 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Generally quiet weather will persist through mid week. A weak disturbance will result in isolated to widely scattered showers and storms this afternoon mainly across northwestern areas. Will continue to carry 20-30 percent POPs in these areas this afternoon. Otherwise, rain chances will generally be 10% or lower.
Morning lows will continue to be near to slightly warmer than normal, with warmer than normal afternoon highs.
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.LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
If you were hoping for rain later this week or over the weekend, I`ve got bad news... The previous slight increase in rain chances is looking pretty bleak at this point. The previously advertised mid/upper miss valley low looks like it will stay much farther north, with the trough axis never really extending this far south. That will leave the local area loosely under the influence of the upper high centered over northern Mexico as the ridge axis extends east/northeastward through the central Gulf coast. While we can`t rule out a couple isolated showers here and there, the overall chance of rain will remain below 20% at any given location so no mention of precip will be carried in the forecast.
Temps will continue to be near to above normal.
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light and variable winds and fair skies.
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.MARINE... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Generally benign conditions will persist across the waters through the week as high pressure will remain in control of the area weather. With the high centered just to the northeast, expect generally light to moderate easterly winds, though directional changes are likely due to sea/lake/land breeze influences across the near shore waters, sounds, and tidal lakes. Waves and seas will generally be in the 1-2 ft for nearshore and protected waters with 2- 4 ft in the outer waters.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 91 66 91 / 10 20 0 0 BTR 70 92 69 93 / 20 20 0 10 ASD 68 90 66 91 / 10 10 0 0 MSY 73 92 73 92 / 0 10 0 10 GPT 70 89 68 88 / 0 10 0 0 PQL 66 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
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.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. &&
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SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM....DM AVIATION...DM MARINE...DM
NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion