Hamby, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

270
FXUS64 KSJT 141826
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
126 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms
  today along and west of a Throckmorton to Sonora line.
- Low chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms on Thursday.
- Otherwise, conditions will continue to be dry and warm through
  the upcoming week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Early this morning, some lingering showers over the Big Country are
continuing to dissipate.  Temperatures generally are in the mid 70s
with mostly cloudy skies and light southeast winds.  Much of west
Texas will remain at the south end of a mid-level trough centered
over eastern Colorado. Just like yesterday, south to southeast winds
at the surface should increase this afternoon with gusts around 20
MPH at times. Similar to yesterday, close to 1000 J/kg of
instability is expected to develop this afternoon, mainly west of a
line from Throckmorton to Sonora. Given forecast high temperatures
in the low 90s with dewpoints in the mid 60s, there is a low chance
for showers and thunderstorms over our western counties this
afternoon. The aforementioned trough axis is expected to lift
northeastward throughout the day today which could provide some
dynamic support for any storms that develop  So far, high-res models
indicate storms will develop over the Permian Basin and move into
our western counties late this afternoon and evening before
dissipating after sunset. While some showers and/or clouds could
linger through part of the night, winds should diminish and allow
low temperatures to range from the mid 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
An upper level ridge centered across northern Mexico will result in
generally hot and dry conditions across West Central Texas on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
with overnight lows in the 60s.
Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper level trough will swing
across the Great Plains, weakening the ridge centered over northern
Mexico. In addition, a weak cold front will push south into the Big
Country Wednesday night into Thursday. The passage of the upper
level trough along with the weak cold front in the area will result
in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, with
the highest chances across the eastern Big Country. Highs on
Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 80s to near 90. Slight
chance PoPs will continue on Friday, mainly for our southeast
counties.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this
afternoon and evening mainly across our western counties.
Confidence in coverage was too low to include a mention in the
TAFS, but will monitor radar trends and amend if necessary.
Otherwise, expect gusty winds to persist into the evening
before coming down overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  93  69  92 /  10  20   0  10
San Angelo  68  91  66  90 /  10  10   0   0
Junction    65  91  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   68  92  67  91 /  10  10   0   0
Sweetwater  68  91  68  90 /  20  20   0  10
Ozona       67  89  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       68  89  66  88 /  10  10   0   0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...42

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion