Harrogate Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

692
FXUS64 KMRX 071723
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
123 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 120 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
- Beneficial rainfall likely as the day progresses through the
  overnight hours.
- Mild fall temperatures and dry weather to dominate from Thursday
  onwards through this weekend. A slight warming trend Sunday into
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
The headline feature of the week is the cold front that will sweep
across the Eastern US today into Wednesday. Locally the heaviest
rainfall will exist across the Cumberland Plateau north to locations
bordering Kentucky. Outside of an elevated thunderstorm, only light
amounts of precipitation are expected in far southeastern Tennessee
into North Carolina. Overall QPF, especially with the latest 00z CAM
suite in, doesn`t look concerning, especially with the nice dry
spells we`ve been having between bouts of rain the last few weeks.
Main FROPA is Wednesday morning, with the last gasp of the bulk of
the rain and maybe a few thunderstorms in the overnight hours
tonight. Could see a few sprinkles or light showers hanging on after
sunrise on Wednesday, sounding profiles have a saturated low level
atmosphere under a midlevel inversion, with decent CAPE profiles.
Otherwise it`ll be pretty cloudy to start the day, before clearing
skies progress in the PM hours.
The other benefit of the cold front will be the high pressure moving
in on the backside accompanied by drier air. Classic physics based
and AI guidance both keep Thursday onwards through the weekend as
near or completely dry. Temperatures will sink a little cooler, but
nothing drastic, just enough to float near or slightly below
longtime averages again. Might even see a few sub-40 degree
temperatures Friday morning around Abingdon to Wise VA areas.
Sunday a coastal low should be on the Eastern Seaboard, ensemble
consensus keeps us dry during that period with high pressure still
sneaking down into Tennessee, but just something to keep an eye on
as moisture availability may be on the increase by next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Main concerns are periods of showers and possibly a thunderstorm
through early Wednesday morning and IFR ceilings for early
Wednesday morning.
Showers with light rain will continue to move across the TAF sites
through early evening. A brief break in the showers this evening
before another round of showers and possibly a thunderstorm
overnight through early Wednesday morning.
Boundary layer becomes saturday early Wednesday morning as a
frontal boundary approaches the area. LIFR ceilings are expected.
For Wednesday morning, convective activity will move east with
drier air slowly advecting into the area allowing flight
conditions to improve.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             68  80  59  73 /  80  20  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  67  75  55  73 /  90  20  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       65  75  53  72 /  90  20  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  71  49  71 /  90  40   0   0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion