Harrold, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

284
FXUS64 KOUN 100948
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
448 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 429 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms are possible by mid-morning through
   the afternoon across northern Oklahoma. Storms should be below
   severe but gusty winds and localized heavy rainfall possible.
- Warmer today with temperatures returning to seasonably average
   becoming hotter through the weekend with above average
   temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A mid-level shortwave transiting through our upper ridge will bring
our next round of showers and thunderstorms down from the Central
High Plains.  Latest radar showing that convective activity ongoing
across western Kansas which is expected to arrive into northwest
Oklahoma by mid-morning.  Any storms that develop will be fairly
isolated, high-based, and subsevere due to weak elevated instability
but could produce some gusty winds. Forecast soundings across our
northern CWA in good agreement with our mid-levels moistening up
from this approaching system and could see some localized heavy
rainfall after our surface up through 12,000 foot dry layer
eventually saturates.  Have mentionable rain/storm POPs across
northern Oklahoma through the latter half of the morning restricted
to northcentral Oklahoma during the afternoon hours.
A warming trend today under our ridge with temperatures rising to
climatically seasonably average for early September.  Lots of cloud
cover this afternoon briefly clearing toward sundown but returning
again overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Our warming trend continues under the building upper ridge becoming
hot through the end of the week with above average temperatures.
Will see lower to mid 90s high temperatures widespread across our
area with an abundance of sun during both days.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Above average temperatures persisting through the weekend.  Our
upper ridge starts to break down/weaken by Sunday as a deep trough
across the entire Western U.S. starts digging into the Southern High
Plains. A series of shortwave disturbances embedded downstream
through the trough will bring our next chance for rain/storms into
our area late Saturday night into Sunday morning but will be
restricted to parts of northern & western Oklahoma.  This upper
trough may cool our temperatures back down to average early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Shortwave disturbance coming down off the Central High Plains into
northwest Oklahoma will impact terminal KWWR with TSRA from
12-16Z and a 30% probability from 16-18Z. Ceilings should remain
in the VFR category as convection is elevated but heavy rain could
reduce visibilities there to an MVFR category for short periods.
This system will move across northern Oklahoma and could impact
terminals KPNC & KSWO between 18-23Z. Ceilings with these storms
will likely be elevated around 7,000 ft although heavy rain may
also reduce visibilities for brief periods of time.
Aside from the convective activity across northern Oklahoma, all
of our remaining terminals should remain in a VFR category through
the entire forecast period. Surface winds will increase out of the
south at 10 kt gusting to 15 kts. One exception is terminal KWWR
which had a northwest wind shift due to an outflow boundary
pushing through ahead of the convection. This boundary will likely
wash out before reaching any additional terminals at least within
the next 6-hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  65  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         94  66  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  93  65  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           90  66  93  66 /  30   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     89  65  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
Durant OK         90  64  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...68

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion