Hayward, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

234
FXUS63 KMPX 161137
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
637 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and humid conditions continue before more seasonable
  temperatures return to end the week.
- Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms exist late
  tonight through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
It`s another warm and muggy early morning with temperatures just
after 2am close to what our average highs should be for mid
September. Today will be our warmest day of the work week with
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s and a run at 90 along the
Buffalo Ridge under ample sunshine. A 500mb ridge axis extends
through the Great Lakes up into Ontario and Quebec, placing
Minnesota/western Wisconsin on the western periphery. This
ridge will weaken slightly over the next 24 hours and allow a
cut off low over Montana/Wyoming to make some eastward progress.
The system that brought some scattered showers and
thunderstorms to western Wisconsin yesterday has lifted to the
north with a weak frontal boundary draped back across the
western Dakotas. This front will make its way into northwestern
Minnesota by this evening and begin to stall out. This front
will be the focus for some thunderstorms late this evening into
Wednesday. A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been
introduced across our western and central Minnesota counties
with a few stronger storms capable of some hail and gusty winds
late this evening. Following the hot and humid afternoon on tap,
we will have plenty of instability, but the lack of shear and
any stronger forcing mechanism should help keep widespread
severe thunderstorms at bay.
Things look to remain unsettled through the end of the week with a
resurgence of the Great Lakes ridge working to keep the cut off
low meandering over the Dakotas. Western and southwestern
Minnesota will see 50-70 PoPs from tomorrow afternoon through
Friday, but this will be in the form of numerous showers and
thunderstorms rather than a widespread soaking rain event. For
points north and east, 30- 50 PoPs last through the first half
of the weekend, but again, no one day should be a complete
washout. Weak flow aloft and therefore a lack of shear will
continue to tamp down our severe risk throughout this time
period. Temperatures will gradually fall from the low to mid 80s
Wednesday to near normal (low to mid 70s) by Saturday. The
upper pattern shows some signs of change Saturday with the
trough finally sliding to our east through the end of the
forecast period. This should leave us with some drier weather
for the second half of the weekend and into early next week, but
some low (< 20%) PoPs hang on across the eastern half of
Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
A few areas of fog have developed, which will burn off quickly
after sunrise. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and southerly
winds 5-10 kts are then expected through this evening.
KMSP...No concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR early. Chc MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind S 5-10kts.
THU-FRI...Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Borghoff

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion