Healy, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

597
FXUS63 KDDC 010955
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
455 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Small chances of rain (20%) from a Hays to Pratt line this morning
- Warmer temperatures with breezy winds for the end of the workweek
(Friday)
- Increasing chances of rain and storms early next week with
  cooler temperatures
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
07Z water vapor and upper air analysis shows an upper level
shortwave moving out of eastern Colorado into western Kansas with
the area of strongest lift in northwest Kansas.  At the time of this
discussion this has led to just a few mid and high level clouds. The
area of PVA is moving into the lee side of the Rockies and will
continue to move into western Kansas through the mid morning.  A LLJ
is producing 35-40 kts winds across western and central Kansas and
with modest mixing this is keeping surface winds elevated through
the overnight hours at 10-20 mph.  At the surface a 1007 mb low and
associated trough is located just west of the Kansas-Colorado border.
In the very short term through about 10 am this morning CAM models
have shown a line of rain showers and storms developing mainly along
the highway 183 corridor starting around 4 am and progressing north
and eastward through 10 am.  While the surface dewpoints are
relatively dry (low to mid 50s) and the lack of deeper gulf moisture
is present there could be enough lift in the mid levels to develop
isolated pockets of rain in these areas.  POPs of 10-30% are in the
forecast mainly along and east of highway 183 with the greatest
confidence of any rain around Hays.  QPF amounts should be light
with probabilities of receiving greater than 0.1 inch in 6 hours
only around 10-40% with the 40% number strictly around Hays.
For the rest of the day the prog east of the shortwave and
associated trough/surface low should diminish winds mainly along and
west of highway 83 with higher wind speeds located mainly in our
eastern zones where the pressure gradient will be tighter.  As the
trough continues to move east models are in agreement that an upper
level ridge builds over the central and southern plains for Thursday
and Friday.  Mean NBM MaxT temps for much of southwest Kansas
reflect upper 80s on Thursday and lower 90s on Friday.  This looks
good as on Friday we should have south to southwest winds, plenty of
sun and the warmest 850 mb temps of the forecast period (22-26 C).
Winds will also be breezy again on Friday with an approaching trough
in the west deepening a surface low and lee side trough in eastern
Colorado.  Wind speeds will be in the 20-30 mph range.
Long term ensembles continue to indicate a large longwave trough and
cold front moving into the central and northern plains for early
next week and increasing rain chances.  Euro ensembles have
increased probabilities of receiving more than 0.1 inch of QPF in a
24 hour period to 30-50% by next Monday-Tuesday and a few ensemble
solutions are hinting at over 0.5 inch.  Temperatures are also
expected to take a dive with potential MaxT in the 60s and 70s for
Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 455 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
In general VFR flight category for all terminals during the time
period. An upper level disturbance combined with a low level
jet could lead to a few isolated showers and storms around HYS
between 12-15Z.  Winds will stay breezy through the day
especially for DDC and HYS where wind gusts could be in the
20-25 kt range through the afternoon.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion