Heidelberg, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

086
FXUS63 KMPX 240804
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
304 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy dense fog this morning burns off by 9-10am, followed by
mostly sunny skies.
- Mild temperatures and dry conditions continue throughout the
  period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Other than some rogue sprinkles forming in portions of western
Minnesota within a very subtle low level convergence area, this
morning has proceeded as anticipated with patchy dense fog
across much of the MPX CWA. Per satellite imagery, the thickest
fog is where you would expect within the vicinity of the Great
Lakes as well as southeastern Minnesota, with the lowest
visibilities being observed around 1/2 to 1 mile in central to
east-central Minnesota as well as portions of southeastern MN.
The fog is much patchier than yesterday at this time with little
in the way of visibility reductions from the Twin Cities and
westwards until you are north of Mille Lacs where some of the
lake moisture is closer. Another pleasant day is expected once
the fog burns off with temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s
under mostly sunny skies with light winds generally within 5 mph
variable in direction as high pressure is directly overhead.
There has been little change within the forecast for the upcoming 7
to 10 days with dry conditions and temperatures generally in the 70s
for highs and mid 50s to low 60s for lows. GEFS ensemble guidance
shows only 2 members with any kind of precipitation to mention for
MSP through the next 10 days, with sporadic low confidence chances
afterwards. This is due to upper level ridging with surface high
pressure bringing subsidence across the region, with a small chance
for far northern MN Friday into Saturday as a weak trough slides
eastwards across the Canadian provinces. Expect primarily fair
weather cloud cover during the warmest time of day, with clear skies
otherwise. The potential for additional fog will also exist as dew
points generally stay in the 50s, which alongside clear skies and
efficient radiational cooling means high relative humidity overnight
alongside light winds. This will be a day to day thing to monitor
and is our only real sensible weather to speak of.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Light winds and VFR into the early morning hours, then another
round of fog through sunrise is expected, with conditions
potentially as low as 1/2sm VV002. Best chances for LIFR/VLIFR
conditions are in central-eastern MN into western WI. VFR
conditions then expected from late morning onward.
KMSP...VFR expected into the pre-dawn hours then fog likely to
develop once again for the morning push. Still a bit uncertain
as to how degraded conditions become but IFR at a minimum is
likely.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Kanabec-
     Mille Lacs-Morrison.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...JPC

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion