Hernando, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

729
FXUS62 KTBW 101235
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
835 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A stalled frontal boundary remains stretched across the Florida
Peninsula, terminating in the weak area of low pressure that has
been spinning over the Gulf all week. These features are keeping
deep moisture in place, with another day of numerous to widespread
showers and storms across virtually the entire area...with the
exception of scattered coverage over Levy County as dry air starts
to creep in behind the front. Similar to previous days, training
storms could produce some minor flooding in a few spots.
Through the rest of the week and into the weekend, an upper level
trough digging into the southeastern US will give the frontal
boundary a push to the south, allowing drier air to spread in across
the forecast area. This will result in a gradual transition of rain
chances, with isolated to scattered coverage north of I-4 on
Thursday and numerous to widespread to the south, then isolated to
scattered coverage over central portions of the forecast area on
Friday with numerous storms over southwest Florida, then isolated
to scattered coverage this weekend through early next week. Apart
from the lower rain chances, the drier airmass will also drop
surface dew points down to the 60s and low 70s by this weekend,
which should make the afternoons noticeably less humid.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 834 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A front over I-4 has helped to bring a low cloud deck to all TAF
sites this morning. Many are either LIFR or IFR. These clouds will
slowly lift over the next few hours but could stay at MVFR through
at least the early afternoon hours. Storms will start up in the
late afternoon and evening hours with the best chance in SW
Florida.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A surface area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf will continue
to slowly drift west and weaken through the rest of the week as
a weak frontal boundary sags south into the area. Deep moisture
wrapping around this low will continue to fuel scattered to numerous
showers and storms today and Thursday. Drier air filling in from
the north behind the front will then bring in lower rain chances
late in the week and into the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Deep moisture holding over the area will bring scattered to
numerous thunderstorms today, then rain chances will drop over the
northern half of the area as a drier air mass starts to move in.
No humidity concerns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  76  89  75 /  70  30  50  20
FMY  89  76  90  75 /  70  40  80  30
GIF  90  74  88  73 /  80  30  60  20
SRQ  88  74  87  73 /  70  50  70  40
BKV  88  71  89  69 /  60  20  30  10
SPG  86  76  87  75 /  70  40  60  30
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion