High Bridge, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

304
FXUS61 KPHI 102334
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
734 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered from New England to Nova Scotia Canada
will continue to shift eastward today. An area low pressure off
the coast of the Carolinas tracks north and northeastward
through today, then moves even farther away from our area during
Thursday. A cold front arrives Sunday night into Monday, then
high pressure builds to our north Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Evening Update: Clouds have continued to scatter out slightly
sooner than initially forecast along with the showers so the
new forecast reflects the updated timing.
A low pressure system off the coast east of Virginia will continue
to bring mainly cloudy skies with some spotty showers around through
this afternoon. The best chances for these showers will continue be
near and south/east of the urban corridor and any precip should also
continue be quite light. It will also remain breezy with NE winds
gusting to around 20-25 mph at times.
As we head into this evening, the low will be starting to pull away
so any showers will be ending. Some slow clearing will start to then
occur by the overnight period from north to south as high pressure
builds in from the north. Lows should be generally in the 50s to low
60s.
For Thursday, high pressure will bring mainly sunny skies with
seasonable temperatures along with light northerly winds. Expect
highs generally in the upper 70s to around 80 with comfortable
humidity levels.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper-level trough axis is forecast to be arriving during the
short term forecast period. In terms of any shortwave activity, the
main piece of energy looks to rotate through on Saturday but surface
high pressure will be centered to the north with it extended down
into our area through the short term period. This will keep us dry
through Saturday.
For Thursday night, we are dry with not much in the form of cloud
cover. Overnight lows are in the 50s. Friday looks mostly to partly
sunny with temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s. By the start of
the weekend, we are still mostly to partly sunny on Saturday with
highs in the mid 70s to near 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
During the long term period, an upper-level trough across much of
eastern Canada is forecast to amplify across the Northeast and the
Mid-Atlantic Saturday into Sunday. The latest model guidance has
trended with this becoming closed off to our north on Sunday and
sinking southward into the Mid-Atlantic as a closed low on Monday.
This closed low may meander into Tuesday. The latest
Euro/Canadian models favor the closed low scenario while the
GFS does show the trough closing off to the north but the closed
low stays to the north and eventually east. In general, the
forecast has trended with more in the form of shower and
thunderstorm chances for this period compared to previous
forecasts. There is still uncertainty with this forecast as it
is in the long term period and PoPs were kept at slight chance
to chance given the uncertainty.
For Sunday, we trend partly cloudy with a slight chance to chance
(15-30%) for some showers and thunderstorms for our north and
west zones by the afternoon and evening. Overnight Sunday, we
become partly to mostly cloudy with the potential for showers
and thunderstorms (15-30%) across much of the area. At the
surface, a cold front will be sinking southeast and we have that
signal for the closed low in the upper levels. All of this is
helping lead to some showers and thunderstorms. The signal from
some guidance still has the closed low in the upper-levels
which results in a slight chance to chance (15-30%) of showers
and thunderstorms on Monday across much of the area. By Monday
night into Tuesday, the closed low starts to depart and upper-
level ridging builds in from the southwest with a high pressure
system at the surface also moving in which leads to drier
conditions for Tuesday. In terms of temperatures during the long
term period, highs will mainly be in the 70s with overnight
lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...Lingering sub-VFR conditions diminish between 01-03z.
I-95 terminals should return to VFR by late evening, but MVFR
cigs will linger longer at KMIV/KACY. Light northerly winds
around 5 knots or less, except at KMIV/KACY where wind speeds
around 5-10 knots are expected. Moderate confidence.
Thursday...VFR with mainly clear skies and northerly winds around 5
knots. High confidence.
Outlook...
Friday through Sunday...VFR with no significant weather.
Monday...Sub-VFR possible with any showers or thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remain in effect for the Atlantic Ocean zones
into Thursday morning due to elevated seas of 5-7 feet and northeast
winds gusting up to 25-30 knots. Scattered showers possible for all
marine waters through this evening. Northeast winds turn northerly
tonight and begin to decrease but seas will continue to remain
elevated.
The Small Craft Advisory ends at 11 AM Thursday as beyond this time
sub SCA conditions are expected.
Outlook...
Friday through Monday...Conditions are anticipated to be below
Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Rip Currents...
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
For Thursday, north to east winds around 10 mph with gusts
around 15 mph. Breaking waves in the surf zone of mainly 3-5
feet are forecast. An easterly swell around 7 seconds will
persist as the rough surf conditions slowly improve. Due to
these conditions, a HIGH risk for development of dangerous rip
currents at all beaches is expected as lingering rough surf
conditions remain.
For Friday, north to east winds around 10 mph with gusts around
15 mph. Breaking waves in the surf zone of mainly 1-3 feet are
forecast. An easterly swell around 7 seconds will persist as the
rough surf conditions gradually improve. As a result, MODERATE
risk for development of dangerous rip currents at all beaches is
expected.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong northeasterly flow continues today, before weakening tonight
into Thursday. Despite being three days removed from the Full Moon,
astronomical high tides are still high enough with water pushing
into the coast for minor tidal flooding to occur at most of our
tide gauge sites.
The more widespread minor tidal flooding looks to occur with the
high tide cycle today. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains
in effect for all coastal zones along the ocean, backbays and as
well as the Delaware Bay through this afternoon. Additional minor
tidal flooding may occur with future high tide cycles on Thursday
and into Friday as well.
For the tidal Delaware River, some minor tidal flooding is forecast
with today`s high tide cycles and even on Thursday into Friday.
Much of this may be below minor advisory level and given lower
confidence will continue to hold off on a Coastal Flood Advisory for
now.
No tidal flooding is expected along the northeast coast of
Chesapeake Bay.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for DEZ002>004.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gorse/Guzzo
NEAR TERM...Deal/Fitzsimmons
SHORT TERM...Guzzo
LONG TERM...Guzzo
AVIATION...Deal/Fitzsimmons/Guzzo
MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Guzzo
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion