High Rock, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

256
FXUS62 KRAH 251750
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
150 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface cold front will slowly push south into the region late
tonight and Friday. The front will become nearly stationary over
the southern and eastern portions of NC over the weekend. This
occurs while low pressure in the mid and upper levels becomes
nearly stationary over the southern Appalachians and TN Valley
this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 105 PM Thursday...
Hot and humid east, mainly cloudy with additional showers and storms
in the west this afternoon spreading east tonight.
There was a differential heating boundary over the Piedmont this
afternoon. The boundary depicted the cloudy skies and cooler
temperatures in the west from the sunny and hot conditions in the
east. Cumulus have been developing recently and there have been some
isolated showers. It appears there will be a chance of
showers/storms across the eastern and northern Piedmont and
Sandhills associated with this feature in the next few hours. Strong
heating with an uptick in instability will likely aid the
developing convection. Additional showers and scattered
thunderstorms are expected in the west into central NC Piedmont
later this afternoon into the night. A few storms may become strong
with gusty winds to 40-50 mph the main hazard. Isolated heavy
rainfall will also be likely. Lows tonight will generally be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s in the warm sector.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 105 PM Thursday...
Continued chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures cooling with the increased clouds and showers.
It appears that an outflow boundary will slide into the southern
sections of our region early Friday. This occurs as the low pressure
in the mid levels to our west over the TN Valley starts to close off.
It appears the main synoptic front will be over the Appalachians
Friday morning, then slowly push into the Foothills and Piedmont
late Friday and Friday night. This will mean a good chance of
showers and thunderstorms over most of the region Friday and Friday
night. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible but hard to pin point
the main areas of concern given the various boundaries expected.
Overall, expect mostly cloudy skies and cooler highs in the upper
70s NW to mid 80s SE. Lows in the mid 60s to near 70.
&&.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...
* Unsettled weather this weekend due to stalled coastal boundary
* Tropical influences possible across NC early next week, but still
  a lot of uncertainty
A stalled surface front across the Coastal Plain, combined with a
quasi-stationary upper low over TN, will serve to focus increased
shower/storm chances across the area on Saturday/Sunday. Several
weak waves rotating around the upper low should move into NC this
weekend into an environment characterized by 1.5 to 2.0" PW`s. While
the highest PW`s will be focused across the Coastal Plain,
anomalously high values will be in place as far west as the western
Piedmont and precip chances will be elevated nearly everywhere.
Ensemble precip probs show excellent agreement across NC and PoPs on
Saturday will range from 70 to 90 percent area-wide. Given
widespread cloud cover, instability should be limited and widespread
severe weather isn`t anticipated. The lack of instability should
also keep rain rates somewhat reasonable. This, combined with the
fact that it`s been quite dry as of late, should help minimize (but
not completely eliminate) the threat for flash flooding on Saturday.
Rainfall totals should range from about 0.5 inches to 1.25 inches on
Saturday, with locally higher amounts where showers/storms persist.
The stalled surface boundary will remain to our east on Sunday while
the quasi-stationary upper low remains to our west. Another round of
weak waves circulating around the upper low will provide a continued
opportunity for showers across NC, and once again there is good
ensemble agreement showing anywhere from 50-80 percent chances for
showers area-wide (highest chances in the east). Extensive cloud
cover should keep instability to a minimum (less than 500 J/KG
MLCAPE) which should minimize the threat for severe weather. Around
this time, additional moisture (2.25" PW`s) may be drawn into the
area from just off the FL coast where it would seem tropical
development is becoming increasingly likely. Depending on what
happens in terms of tropical development, Sunday`s precip chances
could shape up to be a predecessor rain event leading up to
additional rainfall early next week.
With respect to tropical development...considerable uncertainty
remains in exactly what happens with AL94, which still hasn`t formed
yet but has an 90 percent chance of doing so of by the weekend.
There has been a noteworthy westward shift in the overnight ensemble
mean guidance, which brings the storm much closer to the Carolinas
(if not through the Carolinas) by early next week. There is quite a
bit of spread in the individual solutions and while the ensemble
means have shifted westward, there are still a number of individual
members that curve it out to sea and away from the coast. Obviously
how Monday and Tuesday`s weather unfolds is completely dependent on
the track AL94 takes. Should it curve to the east, we may still see
some lingering precip chances across the area given the presence of
the aforementioned stalled coastal surface boundary. A westward
track, naturally, would yield substantially higher precip chances
and precip amounts. For the time being I`ll stick close to the NBM
forecast of increased precip chances continuing into Monday, with a
gradual decrease in PoPs Tuesday through Thursday. NBM precip
chances have increased on Monday (perhaps a reflection of the
westward ensemble shift) and now range from 50-70 percent. It`s
still a bit too early to pin down any specific rainfall amounts, as
the amounts will be completely dependent on the storm track.
In terms of temperatures, extensive cloud cover will likely keep
temps in the 70s and 80s this weekend through the middle of next
week. There is a signal for cooler temps by late in the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM Thursday...
VFR conditions will slowly give way to areas of showers and scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. MVFR to IFR
conditions will occur in the showers/storms. Look for stratus mostly
IFR to develop later tonight and last into Friday morning.
Looking beyond 12z Fri, look for increasingly wet and unsettled
conditions Friday into Saturday. The chance for sub-VFR conditions
will increase and remain high through Monday or Tuesday with
with numerous showers and storms possible.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...RAH

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion