Hobbs, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

312
FXUS64 KMAF 192344
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
644 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 644 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue
  through Saturday, mainly in Southeast New Mexico and in/around
  the higher terrain (10-30%).
- Near-record high temperatures expected Sunday and Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A couple of showers have already been ongoing across Culberson
County and western portions of Eddy County this morning. Shower and
thunderstorm development is expected to continue in the higher
terrain this afternoon and evening due to upslope flow and
differential heating (which may be somewhat stymied by ongoing light
showers). The best chances (10-30%) range from the Davis Mountains
north into portions of Eddy and Lea Counties. Convective-Allowing
Models also indicate the potential for a cluster of storms to move
across far southwest Texas and portions of Eddy County later tonight
(10-30% chance as well). No severe weather is anticipated, though we
will be keeping an eye out for localized instances of flash flooding
today given the relatively slow-moving nature of this activity.
Highs top out in the upper 80s and low 90s again today, though a
degree or two warmer than previous days. Lows in the 60s can be
expected for most.
Saturday continues to look fairly similar to today, especially as
far as temperatures go. The best rain chances (10-30%) will be
in/around the Davis Mountains. That being said, a surface low will
set up north of our viewing area tomorrow afternoon. Lift from the
surface trough, coupled with differential heating and seasonable
moisture should allow for a couple of isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop in the Permian Basin too (10-15% chance).
Sprang
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Sunday and Monday still look to be the hottest days in the forecast.
In fact, the summer-like temperatures these days will near record
levels: the current all-time high for both of these days is 100
degrees at Midland International, and the current forecast calls for
98 and 99 degrees Sunday and Monday. In addition to the hot
temperatures, downsloping westerly winds will keep the area drier
overall. This, coupled with increased subsidence from the
strengthening upper-level high pressure, keeps rain chances near
zero Sunday through Monday afternoon.
After Monday, the forecast (unfortunately) continues to be a bit
uncertain. The deterministic/ensemble European models have been
consistent in signaling a deeper trough that digs farther south
Tuesday and Wednesday, ushering in cooler air and some rain chances
by mid-week. The GFS and GEFS have been a bit more inconsistent. As
of right now, there is at least some agreement the trough will
eventually dip south into the Southern Plains (roughly near the
Oklahoma/Missouri/Arkansas border), which should send a front our
way. This front would usher in cooler temperatures and at least low
rain chances (10-30%). That being said, questions remain as far as
system timing goes (right now it looks like the front would arrive
sometime Tuesday night/Wednesday morning), as well as how much
cooler the air behind the front will be, and what rain chances would
look like. In essence, confidence remains low in the forecast past
Monday evening, and will continue to be low until more consistency
is noted between models.
Sprang
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions will continue through Saturday afternoon. A few
showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the evening
across portions of southeast New Mexico and into areas west of the
Pecos, but confidence was low enough to keep mention out at KCNM,
KHOB, and KPEQ with this forecast. Southerly to southeasterly
winds will generally decrease to around 10 knots or less early
this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  91  68  96 /   0  20  10  10
Carlsbad                 65  91  66  95 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                   69  93  70  97 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            68  92  69  96 /  20  20   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           62  82  65  86 /  30  20   0   0
Hobbs                    64  88  64  94 /  10  20  10   0
Marfa                    59  85  59  88 /  20  30  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     68  92  69  97 /   0  20  10   0
Odessa                   68  90  69  96 /   0  20  10   0
Wink                     67  91  67  96 /  20  20  10   0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...21

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion