Holbrook, Massachusetts Weather Forecast Discussion

531
FXUS61 KBOX 011817
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
217 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Despite full sunshine, today is a cooler day to go along with
enhanced northeast winds. Gusts could reach as high as 40 mph
across the Cape and Islands today. High surf and rip currents
are expected today as southerly swells impact the coast. A cool
and dry airmass tonight will favor a rather chilly night tonight
except for the southeast coast. Above to well above normal
temperatures are then expected by the weekend which continues
into early next week. Dry weather is expected to prevail through
early next week, with our next chance for rainfall not
anticipated until the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 PM Update:
Key Messages:
* Dry/quiet weather overnight
* Chilly with lows ranging from upper 30s to low 50s
High pressure builds over Canada builds southeast overnight. This
will support dry/quiet weather across souther New England. Northeast
winds associated with anti-cyclonic flow around the surface high
positioned to our north will advect cooler air over the region. 925
hPa temps drop below 5C and are likely to translate to surface temps
in the mid to upper 30s across the interior/high terrain and low to
upper 40s across eastern MA. Temperatures will be more mild along
the coast, especially on Cape Cod, in the upper 40s to low 50s. Some
patchy frost possible for location that experience temperatures
below 37 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
230PM Update
Key Messages:
* Still cooler than normal for Thurs (low to mid 60s highs), but
  full sun and easing northeast winds.
* Cool/dry again Thursday night with northeast winds becoming
  south/southwesterly
Thursday and Thursday night
High pressure settles over the region tomorrow supporting abundant
sunshine and dry weather. Temperatures will be below normal in the
low to mid 60s. Winds remain steady out of the northeast around 10-
15 mph for the first half of the day and gradually weaken as the
afternoon progresses in response to a weakening pressure gradient.
Dry/quiet weather persist into tomorrow night. Clear skies and light
winds should support efficient radiational cooling which will result
in another chilly evening with low temperatures generally in the
upper 30s/low 40s with locally lower/higher temperatures over the
high terrain and on The Cape/Islands respectively.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Protracted dry weather continues, with our next chance for rain
  not anticipated until the middle of next week.
* Above to well above normal temps for the weekend into early next
  week, potentially into the mid 80s this weekend.
Details:
Global models/ensembles appear little changed from prior forecasts
for this forecast period. The main story being a steady warm-up in
temperatures to go along with several days of dry weather as high
pressure remains anchored south of Southern New England. In fact we
may see temperatures reach into the mid 80s in some locations this
weekend, which are some 10-15 degrees warmer than normal. While
winds are generally on the lighter-southerly side, the lack of
rainfall, autumn leaf-drop and the warm temps and full sun could
lead to elevated fire weather concerns. Our next chance for
rainfall may not materialize until Wed, associated with a
modeled strong cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z TAF Update:
Through 00Z...High Confidence
VFR. FEW to SCT stratocu around 030-040. Gusty northeast winds
easing through 00Z.
Tonight: High confidence.
Mainly VFR SKC. Potential for periods of low-end VFR/MVFR bases
from ocean-effect stratocumulus for Cape/Islands and perhaps to
PVD after 04z. Mainly light north winds for the interior (calm
at times). Gradual decrease in NE winds for eastern/southeast
airports, though gusts around 25 kts still over the Cape and
Islands.
Thursday: High confidence.
VFR, steadily decreasing NE wind speeds to become 10 kt or
less by late-afternoon, with light/calm winds for the interior.
Thursday Night... High confidence.
VFR. Winds shifting to light out of the west under high
pressure.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday through Sunday/...
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Marine
Through Thursday night...High Confidence
SCY conditions persist through most of tomorrow but with improving
conditions as tropical systems well offshore continue to move east
over The Atlantic ocean. 5 to 10 foot seas overnight with gusty,
near gale force winds over the southeast waters. Winds should be sub-
gale force everywhere by sunrise tomorrow. Winds and seas gradually
diminish/subside through the day tomorrow before becoming more calm
tomorrow night into Friday morning with high pressure dominating the
coastal waters.
Outlook /Friday through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-015-
     016-019>024.
RI...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231>234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237-
     251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250-256.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/RM
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/RM
MARINE...Loconto/RM

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion