Holland, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

789
FXUS64 KLZK 162315
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
615 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
-Chances for afternoon showers/storms each day...mainly
afternoon/early evening activity through Thu
-Better chances for more organized convection Fri
-Hot/muggy conditions through Thu...with cooler temps by later this
week
-Active weather may persist into early next week...along with the
slightly cooler temps
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
A few TSRA were noted on Mon afternoon/evening...but that activity
has since dissipated as of early this Tue morning. Other than some
patchy fog possible this morning...especially where the rain
fell...generally calm conditions are expected this morning.
Chances for diurnally driven convection will be seen each day
through Thu...though no major systems or fronts are expected to be
passing through the region. As a result...most activity that does
develop each day will likely dissipate shortly after sunset. The
overall threat for seeing strong to SVR Wx will also remain
low...but with temps in the 80s and 90s each afternoon...an isolated
strong/SVR storm could be seen. Downburst winds and hail will be the
main threats with the strongest TSRA.
By late Thu into Fri...a closed upper low will be slowly shifting
east over the Plains...and a shortwave looks to swing around the
base of this upper low. This shortwave will move east into AR by
Fri...bringing better chances for a bit more organized convection
to the forecast. While there will be better chances for
SHRA/TSRA...the shortwave may move through earlier on Fri...keeping
the overall threat for SVR Wx low. But again...there will still be
some potential for an isolated strong/SVR TSRA. With upper flow
transitioning to a more WRLY to even NWRLY direction by this weekend
into early next week...chances for precip will remain in the
forecast into early next week as yet another upper shortwave may
pass through Sun into Mon.
Temps will start off well above normal in the 80s and 90s for highs
through Thu...the better chances for rainfall and resulting cloud
cover seen later this week will allow temps to cool some...but could
potentially still be near or slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Isolated convection will continue to wane with loss of heating
and should be done in the next hour or two. Otherwise, widespread
VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the majority
of the TAF cycle. Isolated late day convection is possible over
western Arkansas once again on Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  95  66  95 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         67  94  67  93 /  10  10   0  20
Harrison AR       64  91  65  88 /  10  10  10  30
Hot Springs AR    68  94  67  93 /  10  10  10  20
Little Rock   AR  70  93  70  92 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     69  95  69  95 /  10  10   0  10
Mount Ida AR      66  93  66  92 /  10  20  10  30
Mountain Home AR  65  94  65  93 /   0   0   0  20
Newport AR        68  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     69  94  67  94 /   0  10   0  10
Russellville AR   68  95  68  93 /  10  10  10  20
Searcy AR         68  94  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      69  94  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion