Hoopeston, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

315
FXUS63 KILX 191931
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
231 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected this
  weekend into the new week. Total precipitation will vary on
  where storms develop, with probabilistic guidance suggesting a
  30-50% chance for total rainfall amounts over 2 inches.
- Temperatures will stay warm through the weekend then cool closer
  to seasonal normals by the middle parts of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
An upper trough spinning over the Northern Plains will slowly work
into the Upper Mississippi Valley this weekend. Several embedded
shortwaves will rotate through the main trough, bringing occasional
chances for showers and thunderstorms through early next week. After
a brief lull in activity the last few hours, an uptick in coverage
has commenced this afternoon as a shortwave in eastern MO/southwest
IL lifts northward. Latest high resolution guidance shows this
activity pushing north of the area around or shortly after sunset
this evening. Another uptick in coverage is expected late tonight
after midnight with yet another shortwave. Although most should
only see light rain during these periods, the 19.12Z HREF LPMM
shows pockets of 24 hour QPF exceeding 1".
Higher rainfall chances become focused north of the warning area on
Saturday as shortwave activity shifts into northern Illinois.
Precipitation chances increase once again Sunday into Monday (30-
60%) as several subtle shortwaves work through the upper flow.
Although the entire weekend will not be a washout, the pattern
warrants carrying at least low-end precipitation chances until the
details can be refined. Weak shear through the weekend should keep
the threat for any severe weather low. Temperatures will cool
slightly each day, with highs by Sunday expected to peak in the
upper 70s to middle 80s.
Daily rainfall chances continue through the remainder of next week
as a stronger upper low dives southeast into the central US, then
becomes closed off near the middle Mississippi Valley. Upper ridging
will be in place north of upper low, creating another Rex block over
the central US. Central Illinois will be on the cooler, wetter side
of this blocking pattern this time, which is a welcome sight as we
attempt to ease our drought conditions. Little movement in the
closed low will result in at least low-end chances for showers and
storms through the end of next week. Probabilistic guidance has a 30-
50% chance of total QPF through the end of next week, which is an
increase from previous runs.
NMA
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions should largely be in place during this TAF period. A
slow moving upper low will bring occasional shower and storm chances
through Saturday. There are a few timeframe when coverage could
become more widespread. The first is later this afternoon into
early evening (21-01Z) with another overnight after 06Z. TEMPO and
PROB30 groups are in place to cover these periods. South-
southwest winds will become variable overnight with sustained
speeds remaining below 10 kts.
NMA
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion