Horatio, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

589
FXUS62 KCAE 101029
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
629 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the
next seven days with dry conditions and near to above normal
daytime temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-Dry airmass with slightly below normal temperatures.
The region will remain positioned along the eastern periphery of
an upper level trough. At the surface, strong ridging will
continue to build down along the lee of the Appalachians,
resulting in a northerly flow. Dry advection will keep
precipitable water values well below normal, with the HREF mean
around 0.6 to 0.8 inches. Given such a dry airmass, dewpoint
values will mix out once again, falling well into the 50s across
the area this afternoon. Scattered to broken stratus across
parts of the Midlands will be a factor this morning, but clouds
should generally dissipate by about midday with no precipitation
in the forecast. High temperatures will be slightly below
normal, in the lower to mid 80s.
Tonight, a light northerly flow will persist. Other than a few
high level clouds, skies will generally remain clear. Fairly
good radiational cooling will cause temperatures to fall below
normal, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The airmass
should remain too dry for any fog formation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Surface ridging and calm weather expected throughout the
  middle of the week.
Positively tilted upper trough axis will be centered to our
north and west at the start of the period, moving southeast to a
position near or just offshore of the coast by daybreak
Saturday. At the surface, high pressure to our north will be the
primary driver of our weather maintaining a dry weather
pattern. Seasonably low PWATs will limit cloud cover and provide
abundant sunshine through the period. Daytime temperatures will
be warmer on Thursday and Friday, with highs near to slightly
above normal. Winds should continue to be out of the northeast
and may be gusty at times on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Warm and dry conditions continue.
The upper pattern during the extended becomes increasingly
uncertain as the deterministic GFS and Euro struggle to handle
the potential development of an upper low somewhere along the
eastern seaboard. What is common between them is continued weak
troughing with a building ridge to our west. The guidance is
more in agreement with the surface pattern which remains largely
unchanged and dominated by high pressure. The guidance continues
to drop temperatures slightly on Saturday, likely leaning
towards the Euro solution which shows the upper low over South
Carolina. Temperatures then warm to above normal values for
Sunday and into the first half of next week. The chance of rain
through the extended remains very low, less than 10 percent.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR ceilings possible this morning, then VFR conditions will
prevail for the remainder of the forecast period.
Strong high pressure will continue to build into the region from
the north. This will result in a northerly flow through the
period. A low level jet should mix down to the surface once the
inversion breaks, with the potential for a few gusts to 15 kt
late this morning. Satellite imagery depicts scattered to broken
stratus spreading S-SW across the Midlands this morning, and
some temporary ceilings are expected at KCAE/KCUB/KOGB, with
MVFR conditions possible through about 14Z-15Z. Skies should
then generally clear at all terminals.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A dry air mass will be over the
region this week and no significant aviation restrictions
expected.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion