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Howe, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

109
FXUS63 KDVN 222014
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 314 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon into this evening west of a Cedar Rapids to Freeport line.

- Off and on chances of showers and a few thunderstorms continue through Thursday before precipitation chances shifts to the east Friday into the upcoming weekend.

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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Morning clouds and fog helped to create an effective warm front across the area today draping from Cedar Rapids northeastward to Dubuque. Temperatures north of this boundary are hovering in the mid 70s while to the south they have warmed into the lower 80s. Dewpoints across the area are in the 60s. Farther to the northwest, a cold front stretches from southeast Minnesota into northwest Iowa before turning west along the South Dakota and Nebraska. Storms are starting to develop in southwest Wisconsin and far northeast Iowa. There is mixed layer CAPE across the area of 1500 to 2000 J/KG and 0 to 6 km shear around 20 knots.

Storms have developed in southwest Wisconsin, southeast Minnesota, and far northeast Iowa. This is ahead of convective development in the CAMS which had it delayed until this evening. For this reason, have decided to spread 20 percent chance of precipitation south to Highway 30 or along and south of a Cedar Rapids to Clinton to Sterling/Rock Falls line. After 7 PM this evening, increase chances and slowly spread them south through 06 UTC before storms are expected to dissipate. A Marginal or level 1 out of 5 Risk of severe thunderstorms is in effect this evening northwest of a Cedar Rapids to Freeport line. There is a small Slight Risk for Buchanan County. Any severe storms this afternoon into this evening will be isolated with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. These storms will be slow moving.

An elongated trough at 500 MB stretches from the Canadian Maritimes southwest into northern Michigan then west southwestward into Wyoming and Utah. There are two vorticity centers in this trough, the first over northern Michigan and Wisconsin and a second over western Wyoming. Chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight will be associated with the northern energy and deep convergence along the cold front that is forecast to move southeastward and be bear the Mississippi River at 12 UTC Tuesday. The second is forecast to become stretched out and bring chances for showers and storms to the area along and south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line and bring a chance for showers and storms to the area mainly south of Interstate 80. Any rainfall amounts will be light so no relief for the dryness since the beginning of August.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

The long-term period remains active to start, but a pattern shift by the end of the work week will bring quiet and more pleasant conditions to the area.

Wednesday and Thursday: the aforementioned upper trough will slowly pivot across the central CONUS, making slow progress eastward, so we will continue to see a few more of these embedded shortwaves sweeping through the area. Low to medium chances (20-40%) of showers and isolated storms will continue to linger over the area, most likely across our southeast. A slight cooldown is expected these days, with highs lowering to the lower 70s area-wide.

Friday into the upcoming weekend: big changes come during this time frame as upper-level ridging over the western CONUS develops and kicks out the persistent trough to the east. The result will be dry conditions for our region with temperatures increasing to slightly above normal (upper 70s to lower 80s), so for those that have outdoor plans this weekend, weather is looking quite pleasant! In fact, the global models and LREF cluster analysis indicate a rex block developing over the western US, which could persist into the early part of next week. For us, that would mean a period of dry conditions continuing beyond the weekend into early next week.

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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Low stratus has lingered at KCID and KDBQ through most of the morning with ceilings recently slowly lifting. Expect MVFR to VFR conditions at both sites by 21 UTC. Isolated showers and storms are possible this afternoon at KCID and KDBQ through 00 UTC when showers and storms are forecast to redevelop and move southward across the area this evening. Have moved the timing of this up by a couple of hours from the previous forecast but this is a low confidence forecast as models are not handling the timing and placement very well and appear to be slower with the redevelopment. Do not think that this activity will make it to KBRL. MVFR ceilings and visibility are possible after 09 UTC at all TAF sites tomorrow morning.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Schultz AVIATION...Cousins

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion

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