Hubbell Trading Post Nationa, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

360
FXUS65 KFGZ 022039
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
139 PM MST Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Warm conditions continue through Friday, before cooler
weather arrives for the weekend and into next week. Gusty winds
expected Friday with slight chances for showers across far eastern
Arizona and the Four Corners. Milder weather returns early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...High pressure centered over northern Mexico this
afternoon will shift to the north and east tonight through Friday
allowing for a deepening low to push down from the Great Basin. This
approaching low will bring an end to the warm days of late and bring
in some cooler air, along with gusty winds and some slight chances
for precipitation.
As the low advances towards our area, we will see a tightening of
the pressure gradient occur, which will result in gusty south to
southwest winds across the Desert Southwest. Winds for Friday will
be around 20-30 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph, and a Wind Advisory is
in place from 11 AM MST-7 PM MST, mainly for areas north and east of
the Mogollon Rim. The low is able to dip far enough south to allow
for some moisture to sneak in on the eastern edge and this may be
just enough for some isolated showers and thunderstorms across
eastern Arizona, mainly towards the New Mexico and Utah borders.
Some instability exists towards the Four Corners and with the warm
air still in place and a strong jet moving through, there is the
potential that some storms could become strong. Any storms that
develop may have strong winds and some hail possible as we head into
Friday evening.
For Saturday, the low crosses the region with the best winds
shifting off to the east. Some strong winds remain possible, mainly
across the Little Colorado River Valley through the White Mountains
and east into New Mexico. Winds will be 10-25 mph with gusts 25-35
mph across the region. In addition to the gusty winds, temperatures
will drop some as colder air moves into the state.
Once the trough moves off to the east, any lingering moisture will
dry up and temperatures will start to rebound and warm. A series of
weak troughs/shortwaves will move through the area early in the week
as a trough looks to remain across the western states. With limited
moisture around, we are not anticipating much in the way of showers
but an isolated shower or two will remain possible across the White
Mountains and along the New Mexico border towards midweek. Breezy
winds are expected to continue as the gradient doesn`t fully relax.
&&
.AVIATION...Thursday 02/18Z through Friday 03/18Z...VFR
conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds SW 5-15kts, gusts to
20kts today, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.
OUTLOOK...Friday 03/18Z through Sunday 05/18Z...VFR conditions, no
precipitation expected. Winds SW 15-25kts, gusts to 40kts on
Friday afternoon. SW 10-15kts, gusts 20-25kts Friday night into
Saturday morning. SW 10-20kts, gusts 30-35kts Saturday afternoon.
SW 10-15kts, gusts 20kts Saturday night into Sunday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Seasonal temperatures Friday,
dropping to 5 degrees below average on Saturday with mostly dry
conditions. Look for minimum RH values 20-40% on Friday and 15-25%
Saturday. There`s a very slight chance for isolated showers along
the AZ/NM border Friday afternoon/evening as well. Winds SW 20-30
mph with gusts near 40 mph on Friday, 15-25 mph, gusts 30-35 mph on
Saturday.
Sunday through Tuesday..High temperatures remain 5 degrees below
average Sunday and Monday, warming to average on Tuesday with
continued dry conditions. Look for minimum RH values between 10-25%
each afternoon. Winds will be SW 10-20 mph each day.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/
Friday for AZZ004-006-007-009-012-013-015-039-040.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion