Index, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

919
FXUS63 KJKL 130629 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
229 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather is expected to persist for the next week.
- Temperatures should be above normal well into next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
Just a quick refresh of the grids based on the latest surface obs.
Late evening text and radio products have been updated to reflect
the changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 228 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
Tranquil weather pattern continues under northerly flow aloft
between an amplified longwave trough to the east and a longwave
ridge to the west. A disturbance will move south across the area
Saturday night, but models have trended progressively weaker with
this disturbance over the last 36 hours, and no significant impacts
are thus expected other than passing mid-level and high-level
clouds.
Temperatures will continue a gradual rising trend, both for highs
and lows. Valley fog will continue its trend of developing in the
river valleys and burning off/dissipating within 2 to 3 hours of
sunrise.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 228 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A stagnant yet tranquil pattern continues through the middle of next
week with upper ridging extending from the center of the country
northeast into the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. Meanwhile a
positively-tilted upper trough will remain along and roughly
parallel to the Eastern U.S. coastline. Eastern Kentucky will
continue under a weak north-northeasterly flow aloft between these
two features. Models differ a bit by the middle of next week with a
cut-off low that develops in the vicinity of the eastern Carolinas
Tuesday, with some ensemble model systems taking a more inland track
north through central/eastern Virginia into Wednesday and Thursday
before moving northeast and becoming absorbed back within the mid-
latitude westerlies. Other ensemble model systems keep the cut-off
low along/near the coastline before moving northeast by Thursday of
next week. The more inland track will bring eastern Kentucky more
within the western periphery of the cut-off low and result in
slightly higher precipitation chances mainly in the form of diurnal
afternoon convection, especially along the Virginia and Tennessee
border areas. However, regardless of which solution pans out, the
dry northeasterly flow aloft will generally keep a tranquil and dry
weather pattern in place through Thursday of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
The TAF sites were VFR at issuance time although some valley fog
has developed across the area per AWOS obs as well as satellite
imagery and KY Mesonet cameras. Reductions within that fog are
likely IFR or lower. The valley fog should expand in area coverage
and intensity over the next few hours with LIFR and VLIFR expected
to affect non TAF site locations. Persistence and LAMP guidance
suggest some reductions to MVFR or IFR possible for KSME and have
opted to continue with the TEMPO fore reductions there that runs
from 09Z through 13Z. Once fog lifts and dissipates, all sites
will return to VFR, though some valley areas may again experience
MVFR or lower reductions by the 03Z to 06Z timeframe. Light and
variable winds are expected for the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JP

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion