Indianola, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

100
FXUS63 KGLD 090509
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1109 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm today with highs in the 80s and maybe low 90s. There is a
  chance for severe storms to form in the afternoon, mainly
  impacting Northwest Kansas. Large hail would be the main
  threat.
- Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 80s and 90s through
  much of the week ahead. Daily storm chances are forecast, with
  the possibility for severe storms as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
This afternoon we will have two different chances at seeing storms
fire across the area. The first potential will be across the eastern
portions of the CWA as a a dry line sets up near Oberlin to Oakley,
KS. Around 22-02Z, there is a 15-25% chance a some isolated storms
could form along this line. This boundary looks to have 2,500-3,500
J/kg CAPE and 30-40 kts of effective shear to tap into. Worst case
is one storm forms around the mid-point of this line and becomes a
right moving supercell producing 2+ inch hail or a brief tornado.
However, there is a 60% chance the dry line will be too broad to
fire off any storms, temperatures will be too cool and/or a lack of
mid-level moisture will keep a cap in place, or the line will have
moved east out of the CWA before any storms can form. If more
scattered storms form, there is a 15% chance high based, dry
thunderstorms will form on the dry side of the dry line.
The second round of precipitation, around 0-6Z, a 500 mb shortwave
looks to move through the area. Down around 850 mb, there will be a
pretty noticeable lack of moisture, and mid/upper-level lapse rate
only reach about 7C/km which will massively limit PoPs, currently
around 15-25. The severe threat looks to be pretty limited with
these showers and storms due to a lack of moisture. Biggest threat
would be a dry micro burst leading to 50-60 MPH winds.
Before the storms fire, temperatures are rapidly climbing, likely
topping off in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight temperatures look
to cool into the mid 50s to low 60s, with most of the areas hovering
around 60.
Tomorrow morning, we`ll have a mild 850 mb high pressure system over
the Northern Plains stealing some of the moisture from the central
Midwest and bringing it back into the CWA. There is a 15-25% chance
the northeastern CWA will see some patchy fog in the morning due to
this return flow. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper
80s to low 90s, very similar to today.
In the afternoon, a low coming out of southern Colorado will trek
across the CWA and spark off the first round of showers and storms.
We could see storms starting to fire any time between 19-23Z. Hail
looks to be the biggest threat, potentially 2-3+ inch hail, if a
storm can remain free of competing updrafts. Wind is also a bit of a
concern as DCAPE climbs to over 1,300 J/kg and 6-9km winds are
around 50 kts, so a gust or two of 55-65 MPH are possible. This
severe threat looks to only last 3-5 hours and move in from the
southwest and move east-northeast.
Later in the evening, likely between 3-6Z, a stout 500 mb shortwave
is expected to start forcing more storms to fire to the west-
northwest of the CWA. This overnight severe threat could last until
around 12Z and storms will move to the east. Main threats will
depend on the storm mode and likelihood of severe weather will
depend on how depleted the environment is after the first round of
storms. If this round becomes more of a linear/QLCS threat, wind
will be a main threat. If these storms are more discrete supercells,
hail and a brief tornado would be the main threats. Overnight
temperatures will once again dip into the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A 500 mb high slowly shifting its axis to the east over the central
Great Plains with a slow moving 500 mb low over the Northern Rockies
will dominate the long-term. In the lower-levels an 850 mb level, a
high pressure system over the mid and southern Mississippi River
Valley regions as weak lows eject off the Northern Rockies. This
will allow a southerly LLJ to funnel mid and low-level moisture into
the CWA as well as warmer temperatures. Due to the heat, moisture,
and weak cold fronts, there will be a nearly daily 20-30% chance of
showers and weak storms across the area. If a stronger low and cold
front can eject off the the Northern Rockies, all the ingredients
will be in place for severe storms. The NBM is starting to come
around with PoPs for the workweek, but still does not accurately
reflect the precipitation potential well. This means the PoPs shown
in the local forecasts on our web page are lower than what
forecaster confidence in precipitation is. Overall, forecaster
confidence in: daily showers and weak storms forming is 20-30%; at
least one day (Wed-Fri) seeing showers and weak storms is 65-75%;
confidence in severe weather occurring at least one day Wednesday-
Friday is 10-15%. Friday is slowing becoming the favored day for the
column to support organized convection, but there is a lot of
uncertainty.
Temperatures throughout the next week will warm into the mid 80s to
low 90s with a few places seeing mid 90s. Low temperatures will cool
into the upper 50s to mid 60s as low level moisture and cloud cover
will keep us fairly warm.
Over next weekend, the northwestern low looks to move over the Great
Plains, which could lead to some slightly cooler temperatures and
higher PoPs. There`s a lot of uncertainly about specific impacts, but
it looks to be more active.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1057 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
For GLD, winds are forecast to veer through the period
eventually becoming more ESE around 19Z Tuesday. May need to
watch for some sporadic gusts up to 20 knots from 19Z-23Z
Tuesday as well. There is a 20-25% chance for thunderstorms
developing near the GLD terminal from 22-02Z, confidence in
impacts to the terminal are lower than that so will refrain from
any PROB30 at this time. A better chance for showers and storms
is seen towards the latter portion of the period but there still
lies discrepancies on the coverage of these leading me to think
of a 20% chance of impacts to the terminal. Other than that VFR
conditions are forecast to prevail.
FOr MCK, watching an area of stratus move towards the terminal
current timing of it has it reaching the terminal between 0630
and 07Z so have included the tempo for stratus. As long it holds
together which the guidance handling it the best so far
suggests it will MVFR ceiling is forecast to encompass the
terminal around 07Z, some periods of IFR ceilings can`t be
completely ruled out as well. An overall solid signal for fog
is seen for the terminal with confidence high enough to have FM
group starting around 11Z. The big question will be how low
will visibilities get. There appears to be a 20-30% chance for
dense fog, the reasoning for not including the tempo for that is
that most guidance is not handling the current timing of the
stratus the best and the few that are keep the dense fog away
from the terminal, so all in all confidence is not there to be
that aggressive. AMD are possible through the next few hours
with the potential (25-35% chance) for LIFR conditions both
ceilings and visibilities. Winds will also veer for MCK through
the day, without the signal at this time for gusts. A 15-20%
chance for storms towards the latter portion of the period for
the terminal.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion