Isabel, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

581
FXUS64 KBRO 081121 AAA
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
621 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A weak cold front across the northern ranchlands this evening will
continue to drift slowly southward and linger across the CWA Monday
into Tuesday. Deep moisture remains in place across the region with
PWATs above 2 inches, the 0Z Brownsville sounding indicated a PW of
2.41 inches. The combination of deep tropical moisture, instability
from the southward moving frontal boundary, and remnant outflow
boundaries could generate some additional convection across Deep
South Texas late this evening into the overnight hours. Brownsville
radar currently shows some fading activity across portions of Rio
Grande Plains extending into the Upper Valley and over the Gulf
waters. The abundant moisture and light winds aloft still have the
potential to produce heavy rainfall with any of the slower moving
showers and thunderstorms that does develop. WPC maintains a
marginal (level 1 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall across much of
the area through late tonight.
The latest CAMS, including the HRRR, indicate a lull in activity for
most of the night until another possible around of convection
develops, mainly near the coast, before sunrise. Daytime heating and
the weak frontal boundary meandering across the area should lead to
another round of showers and thunderstorms across the area on
Monday.
Slightly drier air arrives Monday night into Tuesday with PWATs
falling to between 1.4 to 1.7 inches. However, the abundant moisture
combined with the seabreeze each afternoon will maintain daily rain
chances through the week. Will lean towards an NBM,
CONSShort/CONSALL and manual adjustments as the NBM appears to be
overdone for pops. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal
through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Convection has remained over the lower Texas coastal waters
through the past few hours. However, a TEMPO remains in the
current issuance of TAFs for the possibility of additional
showers/thunderstorms late this morning through early this
afternoon. Overall, VFR will dominate through the next 24 hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Generally favorable conditions will prevail through the period with
light to moderate winds and low seas. A low to medium (20 to 60
percent) chance of rain will continue along the Lower Texas Coast
and over the Gulf waters through the period. The increase in low
level moisture and light winds may support a few waterspouts at
times. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in and around
any showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  77  91  77 /  60  50  60  50
HARLINGEN               90  73  92  73 /  60  30  60  20
MCALLEN                 93  77  95  75 /  60  30  60  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  73  94  71 /  60  30  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  81  87  81 /  60  60  60  60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  77  90  76 /  60  50  60  40
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$

NWS bro Office Area Forecast Discussion