Isabella, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

461
FXUS63 KSGF 161114
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
614 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered, marginally severe pulse thunderstorms will occur
  again this afternoon, mainly along and west of Highway 65.
- Hot through tomorrow before a cold front moves through
  Thursday, bringing more seasonal temperatures and widespread
  rain chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Visible satellite imagery shows clear skies this morning while water
vapor imagery depicts the relatively moist deformation zone through
Missouri due to low pressure systems to the northwest and southeast.
In the absence of any meaningful pressure gradient, winds are very
light. These factors may combine to aid in fog formation right
around sunrise, particularly in the areas that received the most
rain yesterday afternoon. The NBM is predicting up to a 70% chance
for visibility to drop below one mile in some places in the
Maries/Phelps/Dent county area between 6 and 9 a.m. Outside of that
area, fog will be quite limited. Overall, it won`t be dense enough,
widespread enough, or long-lived enough to necessitate any
headlines, but is something to be aware of through the morning
commute.
The High Plains low pressure system is still approaching, but we
have to wait a couple more days. For today, the (still) dominating
high pressure will keep high temperatures in the low 90s, though
some areas may only top out in the upper 80s (progress!). As with
the last few days, we will again have afternoon scattered
thunderstorm chances. CAMs are depicting 1500+ J/Kg of CAPE with cap
breakage beginning in the early afternoon. Shear will be abysmal,
leading to pulse-type storms once again. The OPSTI begins
highlighting areas in south central MO as early as 11 a.m. wit
values reaching 16+ (high) along and west of the Hwy 65 corridor
until around sunset. Given the pattern around here lately, and the
fact that yesterday`s storms were not expected to be severe and yet
were in many cases, it appears we may have another chance for
marginally severe pulse thunderstorms this afternoon. Hazards with
these storms will be 60 mph wind gusts and 1-1.5 inch hail at
largest, though more likely lots of small hail.
After all of that excitement dies down after sunset, we`ll have
another night of mild lows in the 60s. Wednesday will be the last
hot day for most people as the front finally approaches. It will
also be the final day for afternoon marginally severe pulse
thunderstorms west of Hwy 65. The OPSTI again highlights this entire
area through the afternoon with values of nearly 18 (very high).
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Lows are still mild Wednesday night, though they do start to drop
off into the lower 60s/upper 50s out east where rain and cloudcover
are minimized through the afternoon.
The cold front looks to make its passage throughout the day
Thursday. As it sweeps through it will bring peak rain chances up to
70% from west to east. The GFS is the most generous with rainfall
totals, showing pockets up to 1-1.5 inches, but most of the area
will see totals of half an inch or less. Highs Thursday will still
reach the 90s out east as the last ones to experience the FROPA, but
those in the west will enjoy highs in the low to mid 80s. Thick
cloud cover doesn`t allow overnight lows to get much lower though,
and they will remain in the 60s going into Friday morning.
Rain lingers through Friday and the eastern Ozarks finally get their
cold front. Highs area-wide Friday will be in the low 80s with some
mid-80s in south central MO. Highs in the 80s continue through the
weekend into early next week. Pieces of shortwave energy continue to
traverse the region in the wake of the low, and we will continue to
see 20-30% rain chances through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Scattered to broken mid- to high-level clouds and light winds.
Evening thunderstorm activity is expected again today between
18Z and 00Z. All TAF sites have a 30 percent chance of
experiencing a thunderstorm that may result in brief periods
with lower ceilings and gusty winds.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within
5 degrees of a record.
Record High Temperatures:
September 16:
KVIH: 96/1954
September 17:
KSGF: 96/1953
KJLN: 95/1953
KUNO: 97/1953
September 18:
KVIH: 95/1953
KUNO: 96/1972
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
September 22:
KSGF: 70/2017
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Nelson
CLIMATE...Nelson

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion