Ishpeming, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

102
FXUS63 KMQT 090724
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
324 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heavy rainfall totals exceeding 1" is expected across much of
  the western UP by the end of today. There is a Marginal Risk
  (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding over western Upper MI today.
- Gusty S to SW wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are being seen along
  the downslopes near Lake Superior this morning. A few gale
  force gusts of 35 to 40 knots are possible in the nearshore
  waters until early this afternoon.
- High temps mainly in the 60s and 70s expected for this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A stalled-out warm front is currently bringing some rain showers and
thunderstorms to the north central and western U.P. early this
morning, with some of the rainfall being moderate to heavy at times.
While the western U.P. has seen up to 100 to 200% of normal rainfall
over the past 30 days, thankfully we`ve only seen rainfall amounts
and rates reach only up to as high as 50% of Flash Flood Guidance so
far this morning, meaning that flash flooding impacts are not
expected to be occurring as of the time of this writing. However, we
will continue to monitor the situation over the western U.P. this
morning into the rest of today as CAMs show showers and storms
continuing to train over this area, with several runs of the HRRR
highlighting multiple inches of rainfall from a line stretching from
the Porkies to the Mt. Arvon area; should guidance like the HRRR be
realized, localized flash flooding impacts will be seen in the
elevated terrain over portions of the western U.P. today. As the
front slowly pushes south and eastward today through tonight, expect
the convection to follow with it, eventually moving over the rest of
the U.P. with time (no flash flooding concerns are expected over the
other portions of the CWA as training is not expected to continue).
In addition, the frontogenesis across the area looks to
significantly drop as we move into the afternoon hours today as the
pressure gradient force over the region diminishes. Thus, while we
could still see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over the
central and east late today through tonight, forcing along the front
will be much weaker, limiting convective development along the front
and thus lowering rainfall amounts. Nevertheless, we could still see
a few showers and storms produce moderate to heavy rainfall from
time to time as PWATs above 1" are projected to continue today
through tonight.
Outside of the rainfall today through tonight, expect the LLJ
overhead this morning to bring windy conditions to the sfc near the
Lake Superior shoreline along the downslope areas from the
L`Anse/Huron Islands vicinity to Grand Marais, with south to
southwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph having already been recorded
early this morning. In addition to the downslopes, the strong winds
over Lake Michigan today will bring dangerous waves conducive to rip
current development to the beaches of southern Schoolcraft County;
therefore a Beach Hazard Statement has been issued for the area for
all of today (stay out of the water to stay safe!). As the pressure
gradient weakens over us today though, expect the winds across the
U.P. to weaken as well, with things generally becoming calm by the
overnight hours. North of the frontal boundary tonight, given the
rainfall expected today, we may see some areas of fog develop over
the northwestern half of the U.P. as ridging begins to slowly advect
into the Upper Great Lakes. Should this occur, a Dense Fog Advisory
may be issued in the future for the significantly reduced
visibilities.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Some isolated to scattered light rain showers continue across the
area Wednesday with the help of a weak secondary trough moving
through; however, with the secondary impulse being pretty weak, not
much in the way of rainfall totals are expected, just maybe an extra
tenth or two at most. While we may see some showers continue through
Wednesday night, expect the skies to start clearing out Thursday as
high pressure ridging continues to pump into the region.
Expect skies to generally lighten up and for weak warm advection to
move into the area thanks to the ridging moving overhead late this
week. Thus, thinking temperatures will trend back to around normal
for the middle to end of this week, with highs mainly in the 60 to
70s range and for lows to mostly be in the upper 40s to 50s range.
While the latest European deterministic run and the European
ensemble do highlight rainfall chances returning Friday into this
weekend, confidence on this occurring is fairly low at this time as
guidance has significantly shifted on the placement and strength of
a low dropping down from Canada late this week; the previous 12z run
from yesterday had a much stronger low moving overhead early this
weekend, whereas the latest run shows the same low being notably
weaker and further east. Thus, feel like the NBM`s rain chances of
30 to 40% for early this weekend are pretty valid; we may see some
modest rainfall amounts or get completely skunked late this week.
Forecast confidence significantly tanks late this weekend into early
next week as it will depend on the strength and track of a high
pressure moving through Canada; should the high be closer to us, we
can expected drier conditions. However, if the opposite is true,
then shortwaves from troughing over the Plains could impact the
region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Showers and thunderstorms across mostly western Upper Michigan
tonight may periodically result in flight restrictions, mainly from
heavy rainfall reducing visibilities. Alongside precipitation, gusty
winds of 20-25kts alongside low level wind shear are expected at all
sites tonight. Showers may also impact KSAW near sunrise. Tuesday,
as shower and thunderstorm activity continues at KCMX/KIWD,
latest guidance keeps the line of showers/storms north of KSAW
until mid- late afternoon. Gusty winds of 25-30kts are expected
at all terminals. As the precip begins to diminish late
afternoon/evening, ceilings are expected to lower to at least
MVFR and fog/mist may develop.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A low-level jet overhead will continue to mix down frequent gusts
between 20-30 kts through this afternoon with a few gales of 35 to
40 kts possible, especially near the central and eastern UP Lake
Superior shorelines. Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue
through this time frame before largely diminishing from west to east
tonight. Patchy dense fog may be present as rain ends and winds
lessen. Winds should die down tonight, with mainly less than 20
knots expected through the end of the week as high pressure builds
in.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ014.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...BW

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion