Jamestown, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

798
FXUS61 KAKQ 301732
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
132 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to track north off the Southeast
coast this morning before becoming a hurricane as it turns out to
sea later today. Light rain well north of the system continues over
the local area today through Tuesday. High pressure builds in from
mid to late week with cooler and drier weather returning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
- Light rain/drizzle and cloudy conditions across the western
  portion of area this morning, but will dry out by this
  afternoon.
- Breezy conditions expected today especially along the coast
  where gusts of 25-35 mph are possible this afternoon.
The expansive cloud and moisture field of Tropical Storm Imelda
reaches northward across our area, and regional 00z soundings
sampled PW values of 1.5"+ across and south of our area. Just to the
north of the local area, a high pressure is building southwards and
bringing in a much drier airmass. A few areas of drizzle are still
present across the region this morning. TS Imelda will start to
track to the east over the course of the day and the aforementioned
high will continue to build further south. Rain chances will dwindle
as the high pushes in the drier airmass. Dew points will gradually
drop throughout the day, generally remaining in the 60s. Meanwhile,
temperatures will be near normal, reaching the 70s. The gradient
between the aforementioned high and TS Imelda will tighten
throughout the day and N-NE winds will increase through the evening
and into tonight, with gusts of 20-30 mph possible especially along
the coast. Temperatures tonight will be cooler, dropping into the
upper 50s in the piedmont into the lower to mid 60s east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Breezy conditions are expected to continue Wednesday,
  especially along the coast where gusts up to around 35 to 40
  mph are possible.
As Imelda continues her trek further out into the western North
Atlantic on Wednesday, the expansive cloud shield will slowly
decrease from north to south. Northeasterly flow will keep at least
scattered cloud cover along the coast, but mostly clear skies will
prevail elsewhere. As the high builds across the areas, atmospheric
moisture will drop considerably and rain chances will become
negligible. Breezy conditions will persist through the day on
Wednesday as the gradient remains tightened between the high to our
north and Imelda. Wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected inland, with
gusts of 25-35 mph possible along the coast. Wednesday will see
temperatures around or just below normal in the lower to mid 70s,
followed by below normal temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s
on Thursday. Temperature Wednesday night will be much cooler, with
temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 40s in the piedmont and
in the 50s to the east.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Typical Fall conditions are expected by the end of the week,
  followed by a warming trend this weekend into early next week.
Cooler temperatures will continue through Friday as the high
continues to pump in a modified continental airmass across the
region. High pressure will remain dominant through the weekend, but
temperatures will slowly moderate through the weekend as an
amplified mid-upper level ridge gradually slides over the East
Coast. Highs will be in the low-mid 70s Friday, mid-upper 70s
Saturday, and upper 70s to near 80F Sunday through the start of next
week. Overnight lows Friday night range between the mid to upper 40s
inland to the around 60 at the coast. Milder overnight lows are
forecast Saturday night through Monday night with lows in the 50s to
lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals for the 18z/30 TAF period.
Overcast skies of cirrus clouds from Hurricane Imelda are over the
area today and overnight, beginning to clear from west to east
tomorrow afternoon. Cloud decks will likely lower some Wednesday
afternoon as Imelda drifts further offshore, but no restrictions are
expected at this time. NNE winds continue to increase this afternoon
at 10-15 kt inland and 15-20 kt near the coast. Gusts up to 30 kt
are possible, primarily this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon.
Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated Wednesday evening
through Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- SCAs are in effect through tonight for the lower Chesapeake
  Bay, Currituck Sound, and Atlantic coastal waters. SCAs for the
  remainder of the local waters go into effect later today.
- Deteriorating boating conditions and increasing NE winds are
  expected, with the strongest winds expected late tonight
  through Wednesday, primarily due to a strong pressure gradient
  N of the region as Tropical Cyclones Humberto and Imelda move
  well offshore. Gale Warnings have been issued for the ocean, mouth
  of Chesapeake Bay, and the Currituck Sound.
- Follow the latest information from the National Hurricane
  Center regarding the progress of Humberto and Imelda.
Latest analysis reveals weak high pressure centered from the eastern
Great Lakes into New England early this morning. Meanwhile,
Tropical Storm Imelda is slowly moving N about 200 NM offshore
of the east Florida coast. Major Hurricane Humberto is a
category 3 storm about 250 NM SW of Bermuda that has accelerated
NNW this morning.
Locally, NE winds are 15-20 kt in the lower bay and southern coastal
waters, with 10-15 kt winds over the upper bay and over the Atlantic
coast north of Chincoteague. Seas have built up to 5-6 ft south of
Chincoteague on energetic 15 second SE Swell, with 3-4 ft seas over
the northern waters early this morning. Waves 1-2 ft over the
Bay, 2-3 ft at the mouth of the bay. Humberto will continue to
send increasingly strong long- period swell toward the local
waters through midweek, with the local area still progged to see
6-8 foot long period southeasterly swell by midday into this
afternoon.
NE winds increase slowly through the day, becoming 15-20 kt across
the northern waters by early afternoon, as Imelda slowly moves north
and strong, ~1032 mb high pressure builds over Ontario. Marine
conditions deteriorate steadily this afternoon and (especially) this
evening, as the strong high builds south toward the area and
Humberto/Imelda curve out to sea toward Bermuda. The gradient
between these two features (along with a push of CAA) allow winds to
increase to 25-30 kt on the ocean (w/ 35-40 kt gusts) and around 25
kt on the bay (with 30-35 kt gusts...highest in the Lower Bay) by 10
PM-2 AM Tue night/Wed AM. Have converted Gale Watches to Gale
Warnings for the mouth of Chesapeake Bay and the Currituck Sound
starting at midnight tonight, as local wind probs for 34 kt gusts
are in the 40-70% range into Wed afternoon before dropping off. Gale
Warnings remain in effect over the coastal waters late tonight
through Wednesday, where wind probs have increased into the 70-90%
range for much of this period.
35-40 kt gusts continue on the ocean for much of Wed morning into
Wed afternoon, before winds diminish to ~25 kt with 30 kt gusts Wed
evening. Solid SCA conditions with NE winds then persist through Thu
AM before winds gradually diminish later Thu through Fri as the high
slowly builds into the area. Seas are expected to build to 10-14 ft
S and 8-12 ft N by Wed, with waves in the Bay 3-5 ft N and 5-6 ft S
(6-7 ft at the mouth of the Bay). Seas will be very slow to subside
even as winds diminish, so SCA headlines for elevated seas are
expected to be needed well into the upcoming weekend.
Lastly, High Surf Advisories remain in place for all beaches from
this aftn through Thu morning, and a high rip risk goes into effect
for all beaches today, likely through the remainder of the work
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...
Tidal departures remain minimal with no coastal flooding expected
through tonight/early Wed. After that, expect anomalies to steadily
increase by ~1.5 ft with tide cycles on Wednesday morning into Wed
night, highest across the lower Bay due to the combination of strong
NE winds and wave action/increasing seas (due to both wind waves and
swell).
The latest ETSS continues to show a high likelihood of at least
minor coastal flooding Wed/Thu for most of our tidal sites, with the
highest water levels occurring during the Wed aftn/evening high tide
cycle in the middle/lower bay and ocean (with higher levels in the
upper bay on Thu). Note that the highest anomalies are expected to
be in the lower bay/tidal James. Not much change in the tide
forecast from yesterday evening`s forecast package. The latest
forecast has most sites cresting well into minor flood thresholds,
with Jamestown/Smithfield, Lynnhaven, and Jamestown having the best
chance to exceed moderate thresholds by a tenth or two with the high
tide cycle Wednesday aftn/evening. Another couple of cycles of
mainly minor flooding is then expected across most areas late
Wed night/early Thu and again on Thursday afternoon. Bishop`s
Head may approach moderate coastal flood threshold on Thu, as
winds diminish and water potentially gets stuck in the Ches Bay.
It is still too early for coastal flood headlines, since the
potential flooding is ~36-48 hours out and confidence in
widespread solid moderate flooding (enough to warrant a Coastal
Flood Watch) is low.
At Sewells Point, the 50th percentile value per ETSS for the Wed
evening tide (5.2ft MLLW) is just above 5 ft, with the 90th
percentile value (5.7ft MLLW) just above the Moderate flood
threshold of 5.5 ft MLLW. At Jamestown, 50th percentile Wednesday
night on ETSS (4.7 ft), is just above the Moderate flood threshold
of 4.5 ft MLLW, with the 90th percentile (5.2 ft MLLW) just above
the major flood threshold of 5.0 ft. Will continue to monitor trends
over the next 12-24 hours. It is certainly possible that a localized
warning or two may be needed in the lower bay/tidal James.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Thursday
     for MDZ025.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ102.
VA...High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Thursday
     for VAZ099-100.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631-
     638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ633-634.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ633-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...AC/NB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...ERI/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS akq Office Area Forecast Discussion