Jamestwn, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

815
FXUS63 KBIS 052330
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
630 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Sub-freezing temperatures possible across the western half of
  the state late tonight into early Saturday morning.
- Frost again possible late Saturday night into early Sunday
  morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Cyclonic flow continues over the state, but the isolated showers
have stopped. Little to update this evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A broad trough with an upper low over the Hudson Bay continues
to bring in northerly cyclonic flow into the region. This upper
level lift has support isolated showers this afternoon. Hi-Res
models move some isolated showers that are currently in Canada
into the Turtle Mountains this evening. Skies will continue to
clear as surface high pressure moves into the region. This will
also cause windy conditions to subside tonight. A colder airmass
with surface high pressure and clear skies enhancing radiational
cooling will likely lead to temperatures at our below freezing
out west. Some lingering winds and cloud cover will keep the
eastern half of the state above freezing. Western North Dakota
and portions of central North Dakota will see the chance for
frost freezing conditions. Thus, the Freeze Watch was upgraded
to a Freezing Warning with a Frost Advisory in the central half
of the state.
Temperatures are forecast to quickly warm above freezing after
sunrise. High temperatures tomorrow will be seasonably cool in
the 60s. Surface high pressure will linger Saturday night which
could lead to a second round of frost freeze conditions.
However, some of the models are start to increase cloud cover
by Sunday morning which has cause model temperatures to trend
up. Sunday temperature will warm in to the 70s out west.
The upper level low over the Hudson Bay will shift off to the
east with an upper level ridge moving into the Northern Plains
Monday. This will lead to wide spread 80s across the region. The
ridge is forecast to flatten Tuesday with wave moving into the
region by Wednesday this could lead to increased precipitation
chances and an active pattern by the end of the week.
Temperatures are forecast to remain in the 70s through much of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR through the period with winds calming around sunset. Winds
Saturday will be around 8kts in the west, and 11kts in the east.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ Saturday for NDZ001-002-009-010-017>021-031>034-040>044.
Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ Saturday for NDZ003-004-011-012-022-035-045-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Smith

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion