Jensen, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

478
FXUS65 KGJT 161207
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
607 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and storms will be common across the higher terrain
  today. In the evening, the northern valleys and mountains and
  central mountains will be favored.
- Temperatures will hover near normal before a warmup kicks in
  towards the end of the week.
- Moisture returns this weekend but confidence in the extent and
  timing remains low at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Convection has been ongoing all night across northeast Utah and
the northern valleys of Colorado thanks to the closed low to our
north and impulses moving through the mean flow. Further
upstream, showery activity can be seen across Salt Lake City
heading up into SW WY. Wouldn`t be surprised if these showers
make it into our region over the next few hours. Later today,
the closed low will slowly drop to the southeast as a cold front
begins to move across the area. Decent upper level support in
the form of a jet streak moving overhead will bring wide scale
ascent to the region. As this occurs, CAPE will reach between
600 to 800 J/kg with a few higher pockets noted later this
afternoon. Moisture is also expected to increase so the CAMs
forecast for more widespread showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon looks spot on. Convection will start over the higher
terrain for all but SE Utah and by the evening hours, the
northern valleys will become favored as well as the central and
northern mountains. Gusty winds, hail, some heavy rain will all
be possible from the this convection. On Wednesday, the closed
low will have filled leaving an upper level trough to move
through. Some isolated convection will be possible, more along
the Continental Divide with coverage much less than seen today.
Highs on Wednesday will be noticeably cooler especially for the
northern valleys and somewhat cooler for the central valleys
down to the San Juans. The southern valleys won`t see much
change as the cool air won`t make it that far south.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
By Wednesday night the passing trough will be well east of the
Rockies, and drier air will move into the CWA behind it. Moisture
lingers a bit in the northern half of our region, but by Thursday
afternoon PWATs look to be anomalously low across the area
(70-100% of normal). This will limit PoPs Thursday afternoon, and
only minimal convection, mostly over the high terrain, is expected.
On Thursday while we are between the trough axis to our east, and
the ridge axis to our west, we will be under northerly flow that
will keep us dry and drop high temperatures by a few degrees to
near to 10 degrees below normal. By Friday the ridge will move over
our CWA, which will shift flow to southwesterly. Moisture may
get pulled into the region with the southwesterly flow, which could
raise PoPs a bit along the southern border of our CWA. However, it
is around this point that the models start to really diverge, making
the forecast unclear. Both the ECMWF Ens and the GFS Ens agree on
the timing of the moisture push, but the later seems to favor a
forecast for more moisture. With this uncertainty it is difficult to
say what the precipitation forecast looks like later this week, but
it is clear that moisture does return after the brief period of dry
conditions on Thursday. High temperatures climb by a few degrees
beginning Friday with the return to ridging aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Showers and a few storms continue at this hour over the northern
valleys. Included a tempo group for KHDN for the next few hours
to account for this precip. Conditions will remain VFR. Showers
and thunderstorms will increase in coverage after 18Z with many
TAF sites possibly seeing convection on station. PROB30 groups
are in place for all mountain TAF sites as well as KHDN, KVEL,
KGUC, and KRIL this afternoon for much of the afternoon. Brief
MVFR will be possible at any TAF site if a stronger cell moves
over but this will be short-lived. VFR will remain the
predominant flight category.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion