Jeromesville, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

058
FXUS61 KCLE 051801
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
201 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge continues to exit eastward toward the coast
of the northeast United States before a cold front sweeps
eastward across our region early this afternoon through early
evening. Behind the front, a trough lingers over and near Lake
Erie through this weekend as a ridge attempts to build from the
northern and central Great Plains and eventually the Upper to Mid
Mississippi Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A ridge at the surface and aloft continues to exit toward the
northeast United States coast and farther east through Saturday
as a trough at the surface and aloft begins to overspread our
region from the Upper Midwest and vicinity. Accordingly, W`erly
to SW`erly cyclonic flow aloft becomes established over our
region, embedded shortwave disturbances traverse our area, and
an attendant surface cold front should sweep E`ward through our
region during this early afternoon through early evening.
Intervals of sunshine and net low-level WAA ahead of the cold
front and along the backside of the exiting ridge should allow
our highs to reach the mid 70`s to lower 80`s late this
afternoon. Net low- level CAA behind the cold front should allow
our lows to reach mainly the upper 40`s to upper 50`s around
daybreak Saturday. Despite peeks of sunshine, continued net low-
level CAA should contribute to below-normal highs in the mid
60`s to near 70F late Saturday afternoon.
Note: patchy dense river valley steam fog and radiation fog are
expected to impact north-central OH and especially NE OH and NW
PA through daybreak this morning. Some of the fog will also
result from nocturnal cooling allowing stratus to expand
downward to the surface amidst sizable low-level moisture, weak
winds at/near the surface, and sufficient nocturnal cooling.
After daybreak this morning, the onset of diurnal convective
mixing of the boundary layer should allow fog to dissipate
between roughly 8 AM and 10 AM EDT.
The NBM continues to suggest today`s surface cold front passage
will be dry. This seems plausible since model soundings suggest
a stout subsidence inversion or isothermal layer between about
5kft and 10kft MSL, associated with subsidence accompanying the
exiting ridge, will result in large CIN for parcels rooted
at/near the surface in the warm/moist sector. However, from
about sunset this evening through Saturday afternoon, moist
isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the E`ward-moving
front should release weak potential instability and trigger
primarily light and isolated to scattered rain showers,
especially roughly along and east of I-71. Note: 850 mb
temperatures cooling to near 6C over/downwind of ~22C Lake Erie,
a WSW`erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air
over/downwind of the lake, and the development of sizable lake-
induced CAPE should allow a band of lake-effect rain showers,
heavy at times, to form and stream ENE`ward over much of Lake
Erie and across portions of western NY late Saturday morning
through sunset Saturday evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aloft, cyclonic SW`erly to NW`erly flow and embedded shortwave
disturbances should affect the Lake Erie region and Upper OH
Valley Saturday night through Sunday night as the longwave
trough axis moves from the Upper Midwest toward northeast United
States. On Monday, flow aloft should become W`erly to NW`erly
and slightly anticyclonic as a subtle shortwave ridge builds
from the Upper Midwest and vicinity. At the surface, a trough
lingers over and near Lake Erie, including our CWA through
Sunday night, and a ridge attempts to build from the northern
and central Great Plains and eventually the Upper to Mid MS
Valley through Sunday night. On Monday, the surface ridge
should build in earnest from the Mid MS Valley and eventually
the Lower to Mid OH Valley. The projected weather pattern
evolution at the surface and aloft should maintain net low-level
CAA across our area. Daily lows should reach mainly the lower
40`s to mid 50`s around daybreak Sunday and Monday,
respectively. The coldest lows should be reached farther to the
south and west in our CWA, where clearer sky and greater
nocturnal cooling are expected. Despite intervals of sunshine,
late afternoon highs should reach only the 60`s to near 70F on
Sunday and Monday, respectively.
Mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air over/downwind
of ~22C Lake Erie is expected to maintain lake-effect rain
showers over/downwind of the lake Saturday night through Sunday
night as lake-induced CAPE remains sizable. During Saturday
night, the mean low-level flow should veer from WSW`erly to
W`erly and allow the lake-effect rain, heavy at times, to shift
S`ward into the primary snowbelt and vicinity in our CWA. On
Sunday through Sunday night, the mean low-level flow should veer
gradually from W`erly to NW`erly and allow scattered lake-
effect rain showers, heavy at times, to eventually impact the
entire snowbelt and vicinity in our CWA. A few lake-effect
thunderstorms are possible on Sunday, when greater low-level
moisture should contribute to greater lake-induced CAPE,
including within the primary electrical charge separation zone
(i.e. the portion of the LICAPE profile that spans the lake-effect
cumuliform cloud temperature range from 0C to -20C). The
intensity of lake-effect rain showers should decrease Sunday
night, as lake-induced CAPE begins to wane via a lowering
subsidence inversion and low-level dry air advection
accompanying the aforementioned surface ridge. On Monday,
lingering and light lake-effect rain showers streaming SE`ward
over/downwind of Lake Erie should end by early afternoon as
lake-induced CAPE wanes further for the same reasons mentioned
above. Current odds favor fair weather outside the lake-effect
rain due, in part to stabilizing subsidence accompanying the
aforementioned ridge.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The above-mentioned ridge at the surface and aloft should exit
gradually E`ward on Monday night through Wednesday, but
continue to impact our region. Current odds favor fair weather
as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. Mainly clear
sky, light surface winds, and low humidity at/near the surface
will promote efficient nocturnal cooling, which should allow
lows to settle into the 40`s or 50`s around daybreak Tuesday and
Wednesday, respectively. Warmer late afternoon highs in the
70`s on Tuesday and the mid 70`s to lower 80`s on Wednesday are
expected as daytime heating is complemented by net low-level WAA
on the backside of the aforementioned ridge.
A shortwave trough axis aloft and attendant surface cold front
should sweep generally SE`ward through our region Wednesday
night. At this time, it appears rather dry air at/near the
surface should prevent measurable rainfall from accompanying the
passage of the cold front and shortwave trough axis. Overnight
lows should settle into mainly the upper 40`s to upper 50`s
around daybreak Thursday as net low-level CAA follows the cold
front. On Thursday, another ridge at the surface and aloft
should build from the north-central United States, western Great
Lakes, and vicinity and maintain net low-level CAA across the
Lake Erie region and Upper OH Valley. Late afternoon highs
should reach the upper 60`s to upper 70`s. Stabilizing
subsidence and resulting fair weather are expected with the
ridge.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions are observed areawide this afternoon and are
expected to continue through the TAF period. Mid-level clouds
will be on the rise through tonight, especially for the eastern
half of the forecast with scattered, light rain showers also
developing late tonight, mainly east of I-77. Showers are
unlikely to produce non-VFR conditions but perhaps ceilings drop
to around 5kft for eastern locations.
Southwest to west winds of around 15 to 20 knots with gusts up
to 30 knots are expected through sunset today. A rogue gust up
to 35 knots (which as already been observed at KTOL) is
possible. Winds quiet down substantially after sunset to around
5 knots before picking back up to around 10 knots Saturday
afternoon.
Outlook...There is a very low chance of non-VFR ceilings with
light rain Saturday morning for far eastern Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. There is also a low chance of non-VFR with lake
effect clouds and rain in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania on late Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
West to southwest winds of around 20 to 25 knots are expected to
continue on Lake Erie through this evening before diminishing
overnight. Small craft advisories and beach hazard statements
remain in effect through tonight. Water levels in the western
basin have dropped to within 6 inches of the critical mark for
safe navigation; however, water levels are likely at their
lowest point of the day, and a low water advisory is not
expected.
A brief lull is expected Saturday morning before west winds
increase to around 15 knots Saturday evening through Sunday as a
surface through builds in. Partially onshore flow and brief
periods of stronger winds to ~20 knots may be just enough for
waves to build to 3-4 feet Saturday evening into Sunday,
especially east of Avon Lake, which may require a marginal small
craft advisory and beach hazard statement.
High pressure builds in Monday and Tuesday, with conditions
improving on Lake Erie.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ010>012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion