Johnson Creek, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

918
FXUS63 KMKX 030837
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
337 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonable, summer like temps in the mid to upper 80s today
  and again Saturday. May see near record high temps for
  Madison and Milwaukee areas.
- Dry conditions through the weekend, but scattered shower and
  thunderstorm chances (20-50%) return early next week with a
  cold front passage.
- Gusty winds along the Lake Michigan through the weekend will
  bring small craft conditions later Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Today through Saturday:
Axis of the upper-level ridge builds into the region today
through Saturday. Looking more at the surface, southern WI sits
in between the mid-Atlantic surface high pressure and a
developing central Plains low resulting in steady southerly
winds and WAA. The combination of this pattern will contribute
to a stretch of summer- like heat this weekend. Looking at high
temps today to build well into the 80s with even a few locations
around the WI Dells and toward the WI/IL border to approach and
even potentially (10-30% chance based off of 00z HREF and NBM)
exceed 90F. Nevertheless given mid 80s records for MKE and MSN
areas, keep an eye out for high temps to potential break some
records. Mild temps are expected overnight tonight with lows
only bottoming out in the low to mid 60s. Saturday will be
fairly similar to Friday with dry conditions, breezy southerly
winds in the afternoon, and high temps in the mid/upper 80s,
which may approach records again.
Wagner
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Saturday night through Thursday:
High pressure will begin to weaken over the Mid-Atlantic region
as low pressure builds northeast from the upper plains. In the
upper levels, the upper low over the far western US will
steadily lift through the central US through the weekend. While
the upper low and correlated surface low will not directly
impact southern WI the system appears likely to drag a front
through the region early next week trending slightly earlier.
While support in the upper levels seems limited, the low to mid
levels seem to carry enough moisture and forcing (WAA, front) to
bring showers and maybe some thunderstorms to the region. In
addition the nature of the trailing front will keep things
moving fairly slowly. This will then bring ongoing potential for
shower/storms across southern WI from Monday into Tuesday
before higher pressure nudges back in behind the front for the
middle of the week.
Kuroski
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. While still cannot
rule out a brief band of sprinkles early this morning, conditions
will remain primarily dry with some high to mid-level cloud cover.
Expect south to southwesterly winds to increase to around 10-15
knots into the afternoon as southern WI sits between developing low
pressure over the Plains and high pressure sitting along the Mid-
Atlantic Coast. May see a bit more southeasterly winds for the
terminals closer to the lakeshore as a lake breeze develops and
tries to push inland. Otherwise, winds will ease through this
evening as dry and VFR conditions persist.
Wagner
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Lake Michigan will sit in between a broad area of high pressure
lingering along the Atlantic Coast of the US and a developing
low pressure across the Central Plains through the weekend. This
will result in prevailing southerly to southwesterly winds with
higher gusts each afternoon. Sunday looks to see the strongest
winds across Lake Michigan with the low pressure deepening as
it lifts across the Dakotas into Ontario region. Small craft
conditions expected in the nearshore with widespread gusts of
20-30 knots across the open waters Sunday with a potential to
see gale force gusts across the northern third later Sunday
afternoon and evening. No marines headlines at this time, but
will monitor if this trend continues. Otherwise expect winds to
gradually ease as the cold front extending from the low pressure
pushes across the region for the start of next week and bring a
cooler, more seasonable airmass along with a west to
northwesterly wind shift.
Wagner
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion