Johnson, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

307
FXUS63 KDDC 081600
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
  favoring areas south and east of Dodge City. Primary hazards
  are large hail and damaging wind gusts.
- Additional thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
  evening, but low ensemble member agreement reduces confidence.
- Near-normal temperatures through Friday, followed by below-
  normal temperatures over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air
analysis reveal a rather unremarkable synoptic pattern, with
weak troughing east of the High Plains, and weak ridging to the
west of the High Plains. At the surface, broad high pressure
engulfs almost the entire eastern CONUS, while lee troughing
is spread out along the front range of the Rockies. Given weak
low-level warm advection and a shortwave impulse ejecting onto
the central plains, some pre-sunrise showers and thunderstorms
may develop favoring areas along and east of US-183, and
continue into the late morning/early afternoon. This activity
will likely be sub-severe, posing little to no threats.
Thunderstorm outflow and convective cloud debris will impact the
temperature forecast, as areas that see precipitation will enjoy
another day of well-below normal highs in the upper 70s. Farther
west, afternoon highs will steadily increase from the low 80s
near US-283 to the low 90s along the KS/CO border. Another, more
significant round of thunderstorms appears possible across our
southeast zones, beginning after 22Z. While synoptic-scale
forcing for ascent will be minimal, strong insolation will
likely result in convective temperatures being achieved for
areas south and east of Dodge City. 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE and
35-40 kts of bulk shear will support a severe threat with this
activity, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary
threats. Convection should clear the KS/OK border by 01-02Z, and
the remainder of the overnight period will be quiet with lows
in the upper 50s/low 60s.
Daytime Tuesday, short range ensembles agree upper level ridging
will advance eastward to over the High Plains as a strong
longwave trough makes landfall on the west coast. As a result of
increased subsidence atop the central plains, all zones will see
an uptick in temperatures with afternoon highs rising into the
upper 80s to low 90s. HREF members do suggest a varying degree
of additional thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, but
little to no agreement between them renders confidence low on
the spatiotemporal details.
Wednesday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles
agree the upper level ridge will gradually shift eastward as the
strong upper low pushes from upstream. This trend supports
continued near-normal temperatures through the end of the work
week followed by below-normal temperatures over the weekend as
the trough draws closer. Precipitation chances will be limited
but not zero, with ensemble meteograms displaying the strongest
signal Wednesday evening.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR expected through TAF pd. It remains very uncertain tonight where
storms will be. Models are not in any agreement. Therefore, do not
have high enough confidence to insert TSRA in the TAFs for now. Will
watch and amend if trends become any more clear with time. Otherwise
breezy southerly winds 15-25 kt with higher gusts will continue during
the daylight hours. Winds should subside by dusk.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Sugden

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion