Joppa, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

278
FXUS64 KHUN 071948
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
248 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
There have been no major changes to near term forecast reasoning
since the update earlier this morning. Regional surface
observations indicate that temperatures are currently near
predicted highs for the day, but should quickly fall into the
u40s-m50s this evening as gusty north-northeast winds subside. Due
to expectations of a light breeze continuing for much of the
night, development of any mist/fog early Monday morning should be
confined to wind-protected valleys.
Previous Discussion:
In the mid/upper-levels, the TN Valley remains embedded within
the flow around a longwave trough across eastern North America,
and this will provide dry WNW flow aloft of 20-30 knots today
before high-level winds weaken and veer to NNW overnight. At the
surface, an area of high pressure (initially centered across
southern MN/northern IA) will strengthen as it build east-
southeastward into northern OH by 12Z Monday. A 2-4 mb pressure
gradient along the southern rim of the low-level ridge will
maintain light-moderate NNE flow, with weak CAA expected to be
offset by strong insolation today, providing highs in the 75-80F
range for most valley locations (lower 70s atop the Cumberland
Plateau).
Clear skies this evening will result in somewhat favorable
conditions for radiational cooling (in spite of the persistent NNW
winds) and this should allow temperatures to quickly drop into
the u40s-m50s (with development of light fog possible in sheltered
valleys). However, as winds just above the surface begin to veer
to ESE, a broken layer of lower stratocumulus clouds will begin to
spread northwestward across the region early Monday morning,
stabilizing temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Latest model data suggests that the height gradient aloft will
relax considerably over the course of the short term period, as
the eastern North America longwave begins to lift out to the
northeast and a more subtle shortwave trough evolves to our west
from the conglomeration of three distinct vorticity maxima.
Although a minor increase in SSW flow aloft could provide periods
of high- level cloudiness from late Monday into Tuesday, no
additional impacts on sensible weather are anticipated at this
point. In the low-levels, surface pressures will begin to rise in
the lee of the southern Appalachians tomorrow and tomorrow night,
as a high in the vicinity of Lake Erie strengthens further and
builds east- northeastward into northern New England, and this
trend will likely continue on Tuesday/Tuesday night, perhaps being
enhanced by the formation of a weak low off the coast of NC/SC.
This will lead to a return of ESE flow across our forecast area,
allowing dewpoints to rise back into the m-u 50s before
potentially falling once again Tuesday night as drier air spreads
westward around the base of the southern Appalachians. Highs will
warm back into the u70s-l80s on Monday and l-m 80s on Tuesday,
with lows likewise increasing to the m50s-l60s Tuesday/Wednesday
mornings.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
By Wednesday, highs look to climb into the mid to upper 80s
again. So getting hotter again, but remaining dry.
The pattern doesn`t change much towards the end of next week with
the upper level trough axis over the east continuing to lift and
weaken. A stronger area of upper level ridging developing over the
central portion of the CONUS edges closer to the area. Main
change will be increasing hot conditions towards next weekend.
Highs should climb back into the upper 80s to lower 90s in most
areas. It still will be fairly dry though, so not overly
oppressive heat index values expected. Lows should continue to
warm a tad into the 60 to 65 degree range in most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A dry airmass will remain in place across northern AL for the
duration of the TAF period, with only a few fair-weather Cu this
aftn followed by an extended period of mostly clear skies this
evening/overnight. A contracted pressure gradient to the south of
a surface high over the Lower Great Lakes will provide gusty NE
winds thru late this aftn, and with flow expected to remain in the
5-10 kt range overnight, probabilities for BR/FG development at
the terminals appear very low. As low-level winds begin to veer to
ESE arnd 12Z Monday, a broken layer of stratocu will spread
northwestward bringing low-VFR cigs (~4 kft) for the remainder of
the period.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...70/DD

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion