Juliaetta, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

715
FXUS66 KOTX 202214
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
314 PM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry through Saturday with breezy afternoon winds.
- Sunday cold front to deliver cooler temperatures, windy
  conditions, and chances for light showers.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, breezy weather will continue Saturday, with elevated fire
weather conditions for portions of the area. Sunday, a front
brings cooler temperatures, chances for showers, and gusty winds
and a chance for thunderstorms. Chilly overnight lows expected
Sunday night and Monday night. Temperatures warm again under a
ridge of high pressure Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: A cold front, currently off the Pacific
Northwest coast, pushes across the region. For this evening
conditions will remain mostly clear, with some haze and smoke
from regional wildfires. The most notable smoke is coming from
the Sugarloaf wildfire and this is bringing some unhealthy air
quality, near and downwind over Chelan and Douglas County, with
unhealthy for sensitive groups toward north-central Washington,
toward the Colville Reservation and up toward Kettle Falls. Models
also suggest this smoke will expand, first east-northeast and
then more east-southeast in the flow behind the cold front,
impacting the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area and Palouse in
and portions of the Panhandle. Right now those area are under
moderate air quality. We will be continue to monitor this with
the local air quality agencies should any of the quality
degrade.
Meanwhile the cold front will be pushing onto the coast this
evening and cross the Cascades overnight into early Sunday,
before pushing east over WA and ID through the day. Moisture
will feed up along this front, but also into a theta-e axis over
southeastern WA and lower ID. Clouds will start to increase from
the west. Rain chances come to the Cascades late this evening
and overnight and other rain chances push up into the Blue
Mountains, L-C Valley and Camas Prairie overnight. Then heading
into Sunday morning (between 5-11 AM) the precipitation expand
over central WA and the remainder of southeast WA/lower ID. Some
CAM models looks a bit convective over the southeast, suggesting
the potential for embedded t-storms, but I am not seeing a whole
lot of instability so it isn`t in the forecast then. Heading to
the late morning and afternoon, the precipitation pushing over
the eastern third of WA and north ID too. By this time
instability increases enough to bring a chance for t-storms over
the northeast third of WA and ID, including much of the
northern mountains, the Spokane/C`dA area and Palouse and ID
Panhandle. The best chances remain over the northeast WA and
north ID mountains zones, but there is enough instability that I
expanded the potential for thunderstorms out over the other
aforementioned areas, broader than the NBM had. The potential
for showers and t-storm quickly wanes through the late afternoon
to evening, with the front moving east. Most areas have a good
chance (55% or higher) of seeing measurable precipitation
(>=0.01") with this front, but the best chance for wetting
rains (>=0.10") will be in the Cascades, especially closer to
the crest, and northern mountains at 60-90%. The central
Panhandle has about a 30-50% chance of wetting rains, while
other areas have about a 10-25% chance.
The Sunday PM thunderstorms will be capable of some brief
downpours and gusty winds to 40 mph, nothing too strong at this
point. Winds will also be breezy through Sunday. Gusts near
15-20 mph are forecast this afternoon to early evening before
subsiding. They then pick up again some over the southeast CWA
overnight/early Sunday, before the increase throughout the
region late Sunday morning and afternoon. The stronger winds are
expected away from the northern mountains, with gusts around
20-30 mph. Precipitation is expected in many areas, but it won`t
be enough to dampen any blowing dust threat completely. So
blowing dust remain in the forecast in patchy fashion over the
Waterville Plateau through Upper Columbia Basin.
Monday through Saturday: A ridge build in behind the front,
before another wave dampens it around mid-week. Some breezy
conditions linger around the Okanogan Valley from the north
Monday. Then that next wave passages; the main energy and
moisture remains north, but it may lead to some breezy
conditions again around Wednesday/Thursday across the basin.
Ensembles suggest a system approaches toward late next week or
next weekend, bringing low rain shower chances. But for the most
part the forecast remains dry through next Saturday.
Temperatures will be near to slight cooler than normal through
Monday. Low temperatures will be mostly in the 40s and 50s
tonight, but drop to the mid-30s and 40s Sunday night night into
Monday AM. Some patchy frost is possible over the sheltered
northeast valleys. Additionally this may come with some patchy
fog over the northeast WA and ID Panhandle valleys and the
Spokane/C`dA area and Palouse. Temperatures moderate slightly
for Monday night/Tuesday AM with upper 30s and 40s to low 50s
near the lee of the Cascades/L-C Valley. Temperatures then warm
above normal Tuesday onward, with highs in the upper 70s and
80s and lows in the 40s and 50s. /Solveig
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue for all TAF sites. Haze
and smoke will continue near wildfires and may occasionally
reduce visibilities to between 3-6 miles around Chelan, Omak,
and Colville. Some of that smoke will be in the vicinity of EAT
and MWH, but the MVFR conditions are expected to stay north. An
approaching cold front with bring locally breezy southwest
winds. The front will bring rain chances near the Cascades
through southeast WA overnight and Sunday AM, expanding into
northeast WA and ID in the late morning to afternoon. Some
isolated afternoon t-storms are possible over NE WA and ID.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions for all TAF sites. Low confidence in MVFR
conditions at EAT and MWH.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        56  67  43  71  46  79 /   0  60  30   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  68  45  70  46  80 /   0  60  50   0   0   0
Pullman        54  67  41  69  43  80 /  10  40  20   0   0   0
Lewiston       62  75  49  74  50  83 /  20  30  20   0   0   0
Colville       44  68  35  70  36  78 /   0  80  50   0   0   0
Sandpoint      49  66  41  69  41  77 /   0  70  70   0   0   0
Kellogg        56  67  46  68  49  80 /   0  60  60   0   0   0
Moses Lake     55  73  41  72  44  80 /   0  60   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      60  73  49  74  53  79 /  20  70   0   0   0   0
Omak           56  75  44  74  48  80 /  20  60   0   0   0   0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until further notice for Central Chelan
     County-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-
     Western Chelan County.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion