Jumping Branch, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

630
FXUS61 KRNK 121042
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
642 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep us dry through the upcoming weekend and
into early next week. Temperatures remain near to just below
normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 AM EDT Friday...
Key Message:
1) Just some passing clouds today into tonight, dry weather
persists.
High pressure at the surface will keep things dry today into
Friday night. An upper trough axis shifts east over the region
today into tonight and some limited moisture will lead to some
cumulus formation today, but overall expect mostly sunny skies
areawide. Temperatures stay close to what we had Thursday with
lower 80s east to 70s west, though some slight increase in temps
in the mountains as upper heights start to increase from the
west.
Tonight, still seeing temps slightly below normal, but not as
cool as earlier in the week. The nighttime volume from the katydids
and crickets will start increasing again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 113 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Pleasant weather conditions continue.
2) Low pressure system starts to develop off the coast of the
southeastern United States.
Weather pattern will continue to remain unchanged through the
weekend and the start of next week. A surface high northeast of us
will move east and leave residual higher pressure over the Mid-
Atlantic for the forecast period. Winds will be relatively quiet and
showers will be absent. An omega block pattern begins to take form
with the higher pressure over the central United States. (The
shortwave mentioned in last night`s discussion looks to head
southward just to our west and miss us). The eastern trough portion
of the pattern will be over the eastern CONUS and a low pressure
system will form just off the southeastern coast of the USA. The
models continue to disagree on its exact location of formation, but
confidence continues to grow on its development. Otherwise, dew
points will remain in the 50s, low temperatures will be in the mid-
50s to lower 60s, and high temperatures will be in the mid-70s to
lower 80s. Sky conditions will be sunny to partly cloudy.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Weak cold front passes through early next week.
2) Uncertainty with coastal low`s path and impact.
A weak cold front passes through early next week, but major changes
to dew points and temperatures are not expected. What is expected,
however, is yet another surface high pressure system entrenching
itself into the mountains again following the front. Unfortunately,
that`s where the confidence in the forecast ends. Much of the
forecast for next week is dependent on the path of a low pressure
system off the southeastern coast of the United States. This low is
linked with the omega block pattern over central CONUS, but there is
model disagreement on how this omega pattern evolves. Some models
suggest it will tilt from southwest to northeast and in doing so
allow the coastal low to move inland and potentially impact the Mid-
Atlantic. Other models suggest the coastal low will move northeast
along the eastern seaboard. So, how the omega pattern evolves will
determine where the coastal low forms, which will affect
temperatures, winds, and precipitation chances in our area. At the
time of this forecast, model guidance somewhat favors the inland
coastal low projection. Precipitation chances are low, but not zero,
for the northern NC counties and southside VA to account for
this possibility. This system will be monitored in future
forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Friday...
High pressure continues to dominate the area, with area-wide VFR
flight conditions for most of the period. Some IFR/MVFR fog/low
cigs at DAN/LWB/BCB will be gone by 13-14z. Have scattered
clouds in the afternoon on Friday but no aviation concerns. Fog
again possible later tonight at LYH/LWB, possibly DAN/BCB but
left out there for now.
Confidence in the above forecast is high, except average on fog
late tonight.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
The quiet weather pattern continues, with no rain chances expected
until at least the middle of next week. Area-wide VFR flight
conditions will persist outside of any nighttime mountain valley fog
that occurs, which would briefly bring down VSBY to sub-VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JCB/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...JCB/WP

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion