Kalkaska, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

343
FXUS63 KAPX 301652
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1252 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable to seasonably warm temperatures today through Thursday.
- Another push of late season warmth Friday into the weekend.
- Dry conditions through the end of this week for most, with at
  least some concern for elevated fire danger.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Sfc high pressure continues to meander southeast across Ontario with
a cool front and subsequent wind shift to the east this morning and
through the day. Consequently, winds will be just a touch on the
"breezy" side and temperatures decrease for most, although
still either seasonable or seasonably warm. High and dry
conditions continue with upper heights well above normal as
ridging continues to build and slowly move east, axis of which
will position from northern Michigan up into Ontario, Hudson`s
Bay, etc. High pressure aloft and at the sfc remain in control
into the overnight with just a subtle eastward progression.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Winds shift to the east today, with mildly breezy conditions at
times, gusts ~15-20 mph to perhaps up to 25 mph in select locations.
Consequently, cooler conditions are anticipated, with mid-upper 60s
possible across northern lower and eastern upper. This will be
closer to seasonable for these locations with temperatures in
the low 70s closer to Gaylord. Expect mid 70s Kalkaska and
southwest, roughly, which will be above normal due to the
airmass not quite penetrating that far southwest in addition to
the warmer easterly downslope winds across these locations.
Precipitation free weather remains with this dry and stable
airmass.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Day 2-7 (Wednesday - Monday):
Cooler airmass settles in over northern Michigan on Wednesday, with
the coolest day of the period. Expect 60s most areas, closer to 70
or in the low 70s west of US 131 as high pressure aloft remains in
control. This feature will remain anchored over northern
Michigan and vicinity to end the week, and with sfc high
pressure shifting to the east across the Northeast - Mid-
Atlantic states, winds shift back around to the south and
southwest Thursday and Friday. Thus, warming temperatures are
expected with upper 70s to low 80s on Friday across northern
lower.
The pattern this weekend suggests ridge axis moves to the east
across the East Coast, with various different pieces of energy
diving across the Intermountain West/Great Basin region out west,
and north across portions of Canada. There could be a few light showers
clipping portions of the E UP vicinity due to a disturbance and
low pressure system well to the north across Canada this
weekend, but pretty low confidence at this time. Additional
troughing sweeps by to the north in Canada ~early to mid next
week, and thus the potential for a cold front and rain chances.
We`ll have to see how deep and far south the upper trough is to
assess the degree of cooling and precipitation potential.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Breezy east/eastnortheast winds today...could be a little more
northerly at MBL and TVC through afternoon. Generally 10-15kts,
gusting 20-30kts. Think winds will stay up around 5-10kts through
the night, which should limit land breeze shifts overnight. Winds to
remain largely easterly through remainder of the TAF period, though
could start to veer southeasterly toward 18z Wednesday. LLWS again
around 900-1000ft tonight, with east winds around 20-30kts.
Cigs/visbys likely to remain VFR for all sites through the period;
not impossible some MVFR cigs develop along the front this
afternoon/evening, but expect these to stay out of TVC and MBL. Also
possible some IFR cigs develop late tonight...but low confidence in
this idea attm.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MIZ018.
     Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ024-
     030-036-042.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ348-349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...FEF

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion