Kenbridge, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

534
FXUS61 KAKQ 251904
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
304 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front moves into the area tonight and
Friday, with an upper trough settling over the Southeast by the
weekend. This will bring more unsettled conditions late this
week through the weekend. Impacts from any tropical development
would be Monday into Tuesday if they occur. However, uncertainity
remains high regarding this.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Message:
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through early Friday
  morning, with the highest coverage shifting to central and
  eastern portions of the area. There is a marginal severe
  threat through this evening for damaging wind gusts.
A deep, positively tilted upper trough remains centered to our west
with an upper low over the Great Lakes. Upper ridging continues to
be anchored offshore. Deep layered SW flow prevails across the Mid-
Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure is centered offshore, with a
weak cold front just to the NW of the central Appalachians. We`re
still seeing cloud cover across the Piedmont with temps only in the
upper 70s-80F. It has reached 90F in spots across SE VA/NE NC where
there has been more sunshine. Showers continue to linger over the
Piedmont, with a few heavier showers/tstms across south-central/SE
VA where we`ve had stronger sfc heating.
Have low confidence in convection over the Piedmont this
aftn/evening given the lack of instability. While there is stronger
sfc heating/instability farther east, the forcing is weaker has
500mb height falls will continue to be negligible through ~8 PM,
which will likely limit coverage. Still, will keep 30-50% PoPs for
most of the area through the evening. We could see an isolated
strong/severe storm (mainly central/east), with the main threat
being damaging wind gusts with a deep well mixed BL where sfc
heating has been strongest. Could actually see some additional
development over SE VA later this evening (9-11 PM) as heights
finally start to fall coupled with some degree of lingering mixed-
layer instability (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg). Thunder chances
gradually fall overnight but showers will likely linger into early
Fri AM as the surface boundary settles in from the NW. Warm and
humid tonight with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- An upper low southwest of the region will bring showers, a few embedded
  thunderstorms, and locally heavy rain Friday and especially
  Saturday.
- Shower chances continue on Sunday with less in the way of thunder
  chances.
The trough to our west eventually splits as a northern stream
shortwave passes by to our NE and a closed low develops over the Mid
South. Meanwhile, the cold front is expected to stall over central
and southern VA on Friday. Lesser coverage of showers is expected
early Friday with the diurnal cycle, with scattered showers and
tstms expected to redevelop along and south of the front Friday
afternoon and evening. PW values are expected to be near 2.0" across
SE VA/NE NC Friday and locally heavy rain is possible. The closed
low is progged to slowly track NE Friday night into Saturday. Height
falls are expected as the flow becomes southerly over the entire
area ahead of the approaching upper low. This will allow deep-
layered moisture to increase Friday night and especially Saturday,
with PWs surging to 1.9-2.2" over the entire area. Scattered to
numerous showers overspread the area from south to north late Friday
night into Saturday morning, with numerous showers and a few tstms
expected Saturday afternoon/evening. Saturday will be the wettest
day of the period, with areal average rainfall of ~1" expected, with
localized totals of 2"+ possible. WPC has a Marginal Excessive
Rainfall Risk for the entire area on Sat to account for this. Not
quite as warm Friday with highs in the lower to mid 80s, with mid to
upper 70s Saturday with the showers/cloud cover. Lows Friday night
and Saturday night will mainly be in the 60s. Shower chances
continue Saturday night/Sunday as the closed low lingers just to our
W/SW. With the low-level increasing a little bit out of the NE,
expect it to be more stable on Sunday with less in the way of
thunder chances (but cloudy and showery throughout the day). Highs
only reach the mid-upper 70s with areal avg QPF of 0.25-0.5". WPC
once again has a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Risk for the entire
area on Sun.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- A unsettled pattern continues late this weekend into early next
  week.
- Tropical Storm Humberto is forecast to become a major
  hurricane well offshore and AL94 has a 70% chance of
  development through 48 hours and 90% through 7 days.
The closed low will remain over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast
through early next week as strong high pressure builds SE across
Ontario and Quebec. Further complications arise from AL94 and TS
Humberto (forecast to become a major hurricane by late Sunday), how
these systems interact with each other, and how much the trough
interacts with AL94. While forecast guidance continues to have a
large spread in terms of both track/intensity with respect to AL94,
there is increasing confidence that there will be some degree of
tropical development off the SE CONUS coast by Monday morning.
Direct local impacts, if they do occur, would likely be from late
Monday through late Tuesday. Regardless, unsettled conditions and
rain chances continue early next week, with increasing onshore flow
as the strong high builds SE from Canada. Depending on the track of
the system, locally heavy rainfall is certainly possible across
parts of the area which could lead to flooding especially with the
rain already expected this weekend.
By mid to late next week, the high builds farther down toward the
area with fairly strong CAA expected. Breezy NE winds are likely by
Wed/Wed night as the gradient between the high to our north and any
low to our S/SW/SE increases. Also, drier wx should finally return
by Wed or Wed night. Highs mainly in the 70s next week. Temperatures
may struggle to get out of the 60s by next Thu in parts of the area.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR conditions prevail at the terminals with BKN high clouds and
FEW-SCT cumulus. Haven`t seen any convection yet but showers/tstms
are expected to develop later this aftn (generally after 19z)
and linger into the evening (and early overnight hours near
PHF/ORF). There is also a low probability of a few stronger
tstms at RIC/SBY. PROB30 groups have been maintained for all
sites except for ECG where confidence is lowest. The most likely
timing for tstms is from 21-02z at RIC/SBY and from 00-05z at
PHF/ORF. Some lingering showers are possible later tonight,
with some IFR/MVFR CIGs likely late tonight and toward 12z
Friday. A SSW wind will occasionally gust to 20 kt this aftn,
before diminishing to 5-10 kt tonight. Winds become light and
somewhat variable on Friday as a weakening cold front settles
into the region. CIGs gradually rise to MVFR by midday Fri and
likely improve to VFR Fri aftn.
Showers are likely with a few tstms possible across SE VA/NE NC
Friday aftn/evening, with widespread showers likely at all of
the terminals on Saturday. Occasional sub-VFR conditions are
expected. A chc of showers lingers into Sunday and Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Breezy southerly winds expected ahead of a cold front through late
 this evening.
- Sub-SCA from Friday through the weekend, then elevated NE winds
  likely from the early to middle part of next week.
A cold front to the west has nudged closer to the area since this
morning, while high pressure remains anchored well the the NE. There
is enough of a pressure gradient between these features to support
southerly winds on either side of 15kt in the bay/rivers and 15-20kt
over the coastal waters. Seas are 2-3ft and waves are 1-2ft based on
latest buoy obs. Gusty southerly winds continue through late this
evening as the cold front moves into Virginia. Still thinking there
will be an couple of hours between 7pm and 9pm where gusts over the
coastal waters touch 25kt. Seas build toward 4ft this evening with
5ft seas likely staying out near 20nm. No SCA has been issued for
this evening due to the short lived nature of the 25kt wind gusts,
the tendency of southerly winds to under perform, and 5ft seas
likely not making within 20nm of the coast. By Friday, the front
will stall over our local waters leading to weaker winds with low
confidence in wind direction. High pressure builds in during the
weekend bringing benign marine conditions across all waters.
Unsettled marine conditions are likely from early-mid next week as
Canadian high pressure slowly builds SE from the Great Lakes and a
tropical system potentially forms to our south and tracks toward the
waters. There is a large amount of uncertainty with respect to the
track and strength of any tropical system that does develop.
Regardless of any tropical development, a period of elevated NE
winds appears possible from the early to middle part of next week.
A Moderate rip risk remains in place for today, dropping to low on
Friday. A low rip risk is expected this weekend, with a high rip
current risk likely for much of next week due to swell from any
offshore system.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AC

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion