Kennedy Space Center, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

812
FXUS62 KMLB 011045
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
645 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions this week with
  life-threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of
  at least 5 to 8 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion
  expected.
- Breezy and gusty conditions continue through much of the week,
  with the highest gusts anticipated along the coast.
- Flooding concerns increase along the coast through at least
  this weekend as a result of multiple days of onshore-moving
  showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Today-Tonight...Hurricane Imelda is forecast to continue moving
northeastward and away from Florida today, with less influence on
local conditions anticipated. Drier air slowly works its way across
the Florida peninsula behind Imelda, with PWATs falling to 1.4-1.7"
locally. This will result in slightly lower rain chances, especially
across the interior near and north of the I-4 corridor (20 to 30
percent). Higher moisture focused along the coast and especially
across the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee will support the
greatest rain chances today, falling between 30 to 50 percent. There
is a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall along the coast today,
with the potential for localized flooding in areas that are already
well-saturated as well as areas that see repeated rounds of rainfall
today. As far as storm development goes, there is lower confidence
due to poor instability, dry air aloft, and poor lapse rates, but
maintained at least a 30% chance for thunder in the forecast. The
Treasure Coast and areas around Lake Okeechobee have the best
chances of seeing isolated storm activity develop, with lightning
strikes and wind gusts to 40 mph the primary concerns with any
activity. Showers are forecast to diminish into the overnight hours
across most of east central Florida, with the potential for ongoing
shower development across the local Atlantic waters. East to
northeast flow at the surface may cause some of this marine activity
to move onshore overnight, so cannot rule out some showers along the
immediate coast. Temperatures across east central Florida are
forecast to be generally near normal, with highs in the mid to upper
80s and overnight lows falling into the low to mid 70s.
High seas across the local Atlantic waters combined with long period
swells will maintain hazardous conditions at all east central
Florida beaches. Breaking waves of 6 to 8 feet and a high risk of
rip currents will be present. Entering the surf is highly
discouraged!
Thursday-Tuesday...A broad mid-level trough is forecast to remain
situated across the southeastern U.S., eventually transitioning into
a mid-level low over the weekend and into early next week. At the
surface, an area of high pressure will situate itself across the
eastern U.S. and is forecast to move offshore late weekend into
early next week. A weak surface boundary is anticipated to establish
itself across the Florida peninsula late this week, slowly drifting
northward as the surface high pushes offshore. Locally, a tight
pressure gradient is anticipated to remain across the peninsula,
resulting in breezy onshore flow across east central Florida through
much of the extended period. Gustier conditions are forecast to
primarily occur during the afternoon and early evening hours each
day, with winds subsiding into the overnight hours.
The remainder of this week and into the weekend is anticipated to be
rather wet across east central Florida. The persistent onshore flow
combined with the weak boundary to the south is forecast to result
in increasing moisture locally, with a return of PWATs exceeding 2
inches areawide. Higher rain chances return to the forecast
areawide, generally ranging from 40 to 70 percent on Thursday and
increasing to 50 to 70 percent Friday through Tuesday. Due to the
easterly flow regime persisting, there are concerns relative to
flooding along the east central Florida coast due to training
activity and/or multiple rounds of showers over several days. Much
of east central Florida has been outlooked in a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall through at least Sunday. Model guidance continues
to indicate a lack of support for strong storm development across
the area with this activity, so maintained only a 30 percent chance
of storms each day from Thursday and beyond.
Greater moisture will support higher cloud coverage across east
central Florida, which will ultimately help keep temperatures near
to slightly below normal through at least Monday in the low to mid
80s. By Tuesday, lower cloud coverage may allow for some greater
daytime heating, with highs forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s.
Overnight temperatures remain steady in the low to mid 70s.
At the beaches, hazardous conditions in the surf are forecast to
continue through at least Saturday as onshore winds persist through
an extended period and long period swells from distant Hurricane
Humberto arrive to the local waters. Breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet
will continue to be possible alongside a high risk of rip currents.
Entering the surf will continue to be strongly discouraged.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are forecast across the
local Atlantic waters over the next several days. Swells from Imelda
and distant Hurricane Humberto combined with persistent northeast to
east winds of 15 to 25 knots will keep seas generally between 7 to
12 feet through the period. Winds are forecast to slowly decrease to
15 to 20 knots late weekend into early next week, with seas
subsiding even slower. A Small Craft Advisory for these conditions
remains in effect today through at least Saturday night, though
extensions in time across the local waters may continue to be needed.
Scattered to numerous showers will continue to be possible across
the local Atlantic waters over the next several days as moisture
increases locally. Lower chances for storms, though development
cannot be fully ruled out. The main concerns with any storms
would be lightning strikes and heavy downpours.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A light Northwest flow early this morning will veer N/NE to NE
today as high pressure builds north of the area. Wind speeds not
quite as strong/gusty as yesterday but will be 9-13 knots,
gusting 20 knots and even a little higher along the coast. Some
drier air across northern terminals should limit SHRA so have
removed the VC term from MCO northward. Higher moisture across
southern terminals will promote SCT SHRA. Increase in coverage of
SHRA and TSRA is forecast tonight into Thu focused near the coast
so will keep VCSH for coastal terminals aft 00Z. TEMPO or
prevailing RA may be needed for one or more terminals where
persistent rains develop. But anticipate interior terminals (MCO)
to remain mainly VFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  73  83  72 /  20  30  50  50
MCO  88  73  85  72 /  20  20  50  30
MLB  86  76  85  75 /  30  40  60  50
VRB  86  74  85  74 /  40  40  70  50
LEE  88  72  85  70 /  20  10  40  20
SFB  87  73  85  72 /  20  20  50  30
ORL  87  73  85  72 /  20  20  50  30
FPR  86  73  84  73 /  40  40  70  50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS mlb Office Area Forecast Discussion