Kinards, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

559
FXUS62 KGSP 192344
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
744 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Pop up showers and thunderstorms are possible across the mountains
each day through the early part of next week. Dry conditions will
persist elsewhere with temperatures at or slightly above normal for
this time of year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Friday: PoPs were bumped up with a blend of the
latest CAM consensus to match the latest radar trends. A couple
of strong storms formed over the mountains, and with slow storm
motions, some locally heavy rainfall. But overall, this activity
should wane over the next couple hours.
Similar to yesterday, it is possible that an isolated shower or
storm could persist through the evening hours somewhere over the
western zones. Otherwise, the overnight should be quiet. It stands
to reason that without much change, another round of mtn valley
fog/low stratus is a good bet, given the time of year. Low temps
will be a few degrees on the warm side of normal.
For Saturday, it looks like the weak forcing and nondescript flow
brought about by the baggy upper pattern across the Carolinas
and Mid-Atlantic will come to an end. We should start to feel
more of an effect from a mid/upper trof over the nrn Plains and
upper Midwest that brings slightly better westerly flow aloft
by the afternoon. Some subtle air mass modification is shown by
some of the guidance, with better low level moisture spreading
east of the mtns resulting in better sfc-based CAPE across much
of the region in the afternoon. The model blend begs to differ,
however, and essentially keeps our chances limited to the same
places as this afternoon. The CAMs could be on the right track,
though, suggesting some isolated showers in the afternoon over
the Upstate and NC foothills, so don`t be too surprised if the
fcst trends in that direction. It should be another seasonally
hot day with high temps about ten degrees above normal, so keep
that in mind if you have outdoor plans.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 109 PM EDT Friday: Drier northeasterly surface winds will
filter in Saturday night as a surface high sets up shop over
New England in wedge-like fashion. The flow aloft becomes more
benign, without much of specific feature. Expect for sensible
weather conditions to be mostly dry, with the exception of an
upslope diurnal shower or thunderstorm in the southwest mountains
Sunday afternoon. Afternoon highs on Sunday will drop off a few
degrees compared to Saturday as a result. Surface high remains in
control Sunday night and Monday, but subtle height falls from the
west suggest a slight uptick in showers and thunderstorms in the
mountains via ridgetop convection by peak heating. Otherwise, dry
conditions will persist outside of the mountains, with afternoon
highs and overnight lows hovering near-normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 148 PM EDT Friday: Model guidance starting to build better
consensus for the overall synoptic pattern during the extended
period. A weak frontal boundary looks to approach the area from
the northwest Tuesday, allowing for another day of mountain
convection, but struggling to break containment outside of the
High Country as nothing aloft suggest the front will advance past
the mountains. Changes really take place by the middle of the week
as deterministic and ensemble guidance key in on the potential of
a cutoff low developing and moving across the central CONUS. In
this setup, deep layer southwesterly flow would commence as a
deeper moisture transport from the Gulf would filter in ahead of
a stronger frontal boundary. A nice slug of QPF response is shown
pulling into the area during the latter half of the extended, but
the question then becomes, will the cutoff low shift across and
out of the area quickly or somewhat stall? If the system stalls
then some form of hydro concerns could persist as QPF amounts
would begin to pile up. However, this is still too far out into
the future to speculate real-time impacts next week, especially as
guidance differ on the location of just about everything. Definitely
a pattern worth monitoring as we head into this weekend and early
next week. Temperatures will be at or slightly above normal through
the middle of next week before associated cloud cover and precip
enters the area in association with the potential cutoff low,
which would put us at or slightly below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Lingering convection seems to warrant a VCTS
for one more hour at KAVL, but otherwise, convection should wind
down and skies gradually clear this evening. Once again, mountain
valley fog will likely form, with moderate to high confidence of
some impacts to KAVL before sunrise tomorrow morning. Will expand
the tempo for LIFR conditions. The other sites are expected to stay
VFR. Convection on Saturday looks to be greater coverage than last
couple days, with even scattered activity across the Upstate. Will
add PROB30 for TSRA at the Upstate TAF sites. Drier air should
linger over KHKY/KCLT, limiting any convection chances to less
than 15%. Wind should be light/variable, then favor a light NE to
ENE direction by midday Saturday.
Outlook: Dry weather returns to start the week. Rain chances may
return Tuesday thru midweek. Fog and stratus possible each morning
in the mountain valleys.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...ARK

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion