750 FXUS66 KSGX 060406 AFDSGXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 906 PM PDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS... Near normal temperatures will prevail through the weekend as monsoonal moisture slowly lessens over the region. By Sunday, there will be minimal chances for thunderstorms across the mountains into next week as a trough of low pressure moves closer to the region. This system will bring a cooling trend with breezier weather across the mountains and deserts with a deeper marine layer west of the mountains.
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.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...
A few isolated thunderstorms developed over the San Diego and Riverside mountains this afternoon, but all activity has diminished across our area of responsibility. A few patches of low clouds have made it to the coast as of 9 PM. Low clouds are expected to become more widespread along the coast overnight.
From previous discussion issued at 2 PM September 5, 2025...
A stronger area of low pressure will move closer to the West Coast this weekend, bringing a cooling and drying influence over the region. By Saturday, this drying effect will be felt as monsoonal moisture and instability begin to lower. This will still provide enough forcing for one more day of a significant chance of storms, primarily across the Riverside/San Diego Co mountains. Storms will be weaker and more isolated in nature.
Areas west of the mountains will see a fairly unchanged weather pattern through the weekend with high temperatures similar to those of today. Everyone across SoCal will also start to feel lesser amounts of humidity as get into the weekend as well. This is all thanks to an area of low pressure that will move across the state by early next week. As it does so, we can expect temperatures to cool through the middle of the week with highs 5 to 15 degrees below average. There is high confidence in forecast high temperatures by Wednesday will be in the 70s/80s for many west of the mountains into the high desert with 90s in the lower deserts. Ensemble model guidance is in good agreement of this trough sticking around into later in the week, which would continue the cooler and drier weather pattern.
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.AVIATION... 060335Z...Coast...Low clouds based 1000-1400 ft MSL have formed over northern San Diego County coastal regions, and will continue to spread along the coast and inland to 10-15 miles. Reduced vis over coastal high lands and higher west valley terrain 2-5 SM. Clouds clearing to the beaches 15-17Z, with VFR conditions following through late Sat.
Valleys/Mountains/Deserts...Low chances (10-20%) for SHRA over mountains (mostly mountains of San Diego and southern Riverside counties) with about a 5-10% chance for isolated TSRA, highest over southern San Diego Co mtns. Showers/storms possible Sat 20Z-01Z, with CB bases around 10K ft and any TSRA tops to 35K ft. Any TSRA will bring gusty, erratic winds, blowing dust with low visibility, lightning, and lower bases 6000-9000 feet MSL
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.MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.
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.SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
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.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None.
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PUBLIC...CO/APR AVIATION/MARINE...CSP
NWS SGX Office Area Forecast Discussion