Kitchings Mill, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

415
FXUS62 KCAE 251724
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
124 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid today with showers and thunderstorms developing late
in the day, continuing into Friday as a cold front approaches the
area. The chance of rain persists into the weekend and early next
week with lower temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Hot and humid, afternoon/evening storms possible
The axis of an upper level trough will push into the
Mississippi River Valley today as the associated surface front
slowly works towards the forecast area. SW flow ahead of the
front will lead to an uptick in moisture and keeps temperatures
well above normal. Highs today will once again be in the low to
mid 90s. PWAT values will increase to nearly 2 inches this
afternoon. Convergence ahead of the front will help trigger
showers and thunderstorms across the Southeast. Convection
should moves east into the area this afternoon and into the
evening. The highest rain chances in the near term look to be in
the western Midlands and upper CSRA where convection will enter
the region before loss of daytime heating. As storms move
through the area low level lapse rates will weaken as daytime
heating is lost. This will ultimately limit the threat of severe
weather but an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out.
Scattered showers and storms should linger into the evening then
wane overnight. Warm muggy conditions will keep temps above
normal with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Periods of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected Friday and Saturday as a cold front approaches the region.
- The clouds and rain should result in temperatures closer to
seasonal values, especially on Saturday.
Guidance remains consistent regarding the overall synoptic pattern
for the short term. A weakening upper trough to our west will slowly
move eastward towards the FA, possibly developing into a cutoff low.
Regardless of the development, this feature should be draped along
the Appalachian Mountains by daybreak Sunday. At the surface, a cold
front will slowly approach the region on Friday and will likely
linger nearby on Saturday, keeping rain in the forecast. There will
be ample moisture in place on Friday, with PWATs around 2 inches,
which will combine with upper level support and result in the
redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon hours,
if not sooner. Despite the recent lack of rainfall, there is a
concern for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially
from any training thunderstorms that develop. The Day 2 WPC ERO
places the entire CWA in a Marginal (1/4) risk for excessive
rainfall. The rain threat on Saturday will be dependent on where the
front is located. Latest guidance suggests there will be some
improvement across the western CWA on Saturday, with the heaviest
rain falling across the Pee Dee region. NBM rainfall amounts are
mostly in the half inch to an inch range by the end of the period,
with higher amounts between 1 and 2 inches mainly from Columbia and
points to the north and east. The Day 3 WPC ERO highlights locations
along and north/east of I-26 which is in line with the NBM. The
clouds and rain will result in lower daytime temperatures,
especially on Saturday when highs should be near to perhaps slightly
below seasonal values.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Highly uncertain forecast during the extended that will be
dependent on Invest 94L, currently near Hispaniola, and what, if
any, impact it will have on the forecast area.
Attention in the extended shifts to Invest 94L, which is expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone near The Bahamas this weekend. The
large scale setup is challenging as we move into early next week as
it remains unclear how this system will interact with the upper
trough to its west and Humberto to its east. Many members of the
model guidance show this system at least nearing the coast of the
Southeastern US, with potential impacts arriving as early as Sunday
night. However, until an area of low pressure develops from 94L,
model guidance will likely continue to struggle with its future
track and intensity. At this point, the best advice is to stay
posted for future updates and make sure to have your preparedness
plans in place in the event this system threatens the forecast area.
Given the unsettled pattern, daytime temperatures should be near to
slightly below seasonal values, with the potential for a cool, dry
air mass arriving during the mid to late week period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening.
Convection will develop across the Southeast today ahead of a
slowly moving front. The main area of showers and storms should
move into the area in the late afternoon and evening after loss
of peak heating. Ultimately this should lead to scattered
convective coverage which decreases confidence in impacts to the
terminals. Periodic restrictions from storms and gusty winds are
possible but confidence is low. Winds today pick up out of the
southwest after about 15z, gusting to 15-20 kts at times before
diminishing after 00z again. With ample low-level moisture over
the area, we can expect a period of stratus to develop tonight
dissipating Friday morning. Visibility restrictions are less
likely given the decent mixing overnight.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Deep moisture remains in place this
weekend leading to likely rain chances and possible widespread
restrictions.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion