Kossuth, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

630
FXUS63 KDVN 231828
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
128 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Southern rain chances (20-50%) will continue into tonight.
- Prolonged period of dry conditions and above normal
  temperatures expected Thursday through early next week, with
  comfortable humidity.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Upper low pressure continues to be positioned over the upper Great
Lakes region, while a large trof rotates through the southern plains
rounding the base of the upper low. Our area continues to see
plentiful cloud cover, mainly at upper levels, with some bands of
lower stratocumulus in the north, and far south.  Rain showers are
mainly in Missouri, but are as far northeast as our extreme southern
CWA (Scotland County), and a few over central Iowa. Extensive clouds
have held temperatures down in the 70s in our far south, limiting
any instability greatly.  Still, with forcing from the upper low,
and weak convergence, there has been some heavy showers on radar. We
can`t rule out a funnel cloud in this set up, but the limited
instability, and ongoing showers are likely to keep that threat low.
SPC non-supercell tornado parameter as of 1 PM, remains zero.
With cloud cover remaining in place tonight, lows tonight will not
be quite as cool as last night, and remain in the mid 50s north, to
lower 60s central and south, or a few degrees milder than this
morning. This pattern will shift southward ever so slightly for
tomorrow, but generally repeat the mostly cloudy sky, light winds,
and low southern rain chances in this case, under 20%.  Cloud cover
will slowly give way to sunshine/clearing from north to south in the
afternoon, but highs in the mid 70s seem on track for that period.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Thursday-Sunday...a positively tilted trough finally shifts east
into the Ohio river valley, with northwest flow and building heights
aloft left in its wake. This will result in a prolonged period of
dry conditions, comfortable humidity, and slightly above normal
temperatures. An upper level wave will move across southern Canada
Friday night, dragging a cold front through the CWA on Saturday.
1000-500mb RH progs suggest this will be a dry fropa, with only an
increase in clouds and a reinforcing shot of cool dry air seen
behind the front. It will be quite pleasant outside this weekend for
any outdoor plans or harvesting.
Early Next Week...all deterministic and ensemble model solutions
suggest a building upper level ridge bringing warmer and continued
dry conditions to the area. In fact, the latest 6-10 day temperature
and precip outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has 70%
probabilities of above normal temperatures and 60% combined
probabilities of below/near normal precipitation for the Sept 28th-
Oct 2nd timeframe. Taking a look at the ensemble distribution for
highs at MLI for the 29th and 30th, over 80% of the GEFS, ENS, and
GEPS members have values greater than 75 degrees! This will continue
to be good for harvesting, but not so much to alleviate any
developing drought conditions.  The dry air will offer the
opportunity to open windows at night for many, while the warm
afternoons should keep air conditioning going for most. &&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A low pressure to our south will bring mostly cloudy skies
through Wednesday morning, but most hours will be VFR. However,
some narrow lines of stratus is possible, with one in the early
hours of this TAF forecast, for CID and DBQ, were cigs near 1800
CIGs expected through 20Z, then another chance for more
1500-2000 cigs Wednesday morning. This second chance will be
mainly south of I-80 areas. Any rain showers will be isolated,
and mainly south of BRL.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin/Gross
AVIATION...Ervin

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion