Kramer Junction, California Weather Forecast Discussion

322
FXUS65 KVEF 141024
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
324 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* High pressure building over the southwest will allow for dry
  weather and a warming trend through the middle of the upcoming
  week.
* Moisture is expected to return to the region later in the week,
  bringing increased cloud cover and chances for showers and
  thunderstorms.
* There is low confidence in the details, so the forecast for any
  given point is likely to change as we get closer to the event.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Saturday. Complex forecast shaping up for late
in the week, but tranquil weather will continue for a few more days
first. Stepping back and taking a look at current conditions, water
vapor satellite loop showed a trough coming onshore in the Pacific
Northwest, a dry cutoff low meandering around near 29N 126W, and a
low pressure system including the remnants of Tropical Storm Mario
south of Cabo San Lucas. The first trough will swing inland today
and pass by to our north with minimal effect on our sensible
weather, leaving us under weak high pressure. By Tuesday, high
pressure will be building overhead, but meanwhile, the remnants of
Mario will have tracked northwest offshore of the Baja (possibly
regenerating into a tropical storm, but whether or not that happens
won`t matter much for this forecast), and the cutoff low should have
drifted a bit farther north. This will allow tropical moisture to
advect northwest between the cutoff low and the inland high,
possibly reaching southern California as early as Tuesday but more
likely Wednesday. Thursday, as the high pressure breaks down in
response to the next trough moving into the Pacific Northwest, the
door opens for tropical moisture to come north up the Colorado River
Valley, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to
much of our region. All of this is likely to change to some degree
as we get closer, but what follows is of even lower confidence. Once
the moisture is in place, will the cutoff low phase with one of the
incoming northern stream troughs? If it does, this would likely
focus higher PoPs for our area into a shorter time window, with a
drying trend to follow. If it doesn`t, there could be a longer time
window of lower grade PoPs. At the risk of repetition, confidence in
any of these details is low, and there will almost certainly be
changes. The main message is dry and warm through Wednesday,
followed by cooling and moistening with increasing chances for rain.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...
Wind direction will follow typical diurnal patterns through the
forecast period with light, mainly variable winds this morning
becoming more east to southeast during the afternoon. Winds will
generally remain under 10KT, but an occasional gust to 15KT is
possible during the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail with
temperatures remaining under 100 degrees.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Across the region, winds
will generally follow typical diurnal patterns into Monday, with
sustained speeds remaining around 10KT or less. Southeast to south
winds at KBIH are expected to be closer to 10-12KT between 22-01Z.
VFR conditions prevail areawide.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Gorelow
For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion