Kyle, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

096
FXUS63 KUNR 102323
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
523 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Seasonally warm through Friday
-Isolated showers and thunderstorms through Friday with a good
 chance of rain this weekend most places
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Central CONUS ridge will shift east as the western CONUS trough
moves east into the region. This will support increasingly
unsettled weather in the Northern Plains into this weekend. Weak
impulses will continue to shift northeast into the region ahead
the upper trough and support daily isolated shower/TS chances
through Friday. Gusty winds will be the main impact from any
stronger cells. Upper trough will shift east by this weekend with
the main batch of LSA and forcing spreading over the region. The
exact location of the best overlap of forcing and moisture still
remains uncertain with forecast models wobbling on the location of
deformation zone lift and dry slotting. The 12Z NAM is the
furthest south and west with the higher precip totals over the FA.
However, most other models keep the higher precip numbers north
and east of most of the area. Some upslope enhancement may also
occur with this system Saturday, particularly in the northern and
eastern foothills. Cooler weather can be expected this weekend
with all the moisture and clouds around, but there is not much if
any cold air with this system, with seasonal temps continuing.
Things dry out for the first part of next week, with warmer temps,
but another upper trough moves into the region later in the week,
supporting additional rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued At 519 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Isolated thunderstorms will move across terminals through around
06Z, situated along a stationary boundary. South/southeast winds
will remain gusty, generally up to 25 kts, through much of the TAF
period. VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace.
AEH
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...Herdliska

NWS UNR Office Area Forecast Discussion