806 FXUS64 KJAN 191805 AFDJANArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 105 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Today & Tonight...
Upstream convection has unexpectedly stalled out just to our northwest, while simultaneously deepening. The current thinking is that once the supporting jet begins to shift, this should allow for those showers and thunderstorms to finally make their way into our area, especially along the ArkLaMiss Delta region this afternoon and could persist a couple of hours after sunset.
Should we receive those showers in the Delta and northern reaches of the area, fog/mist development will be possible in those areas. High surface moisture and low temperatures bottoming out in the mid 60s will allow for short lived thermal cross-over just before and after sunrise.
Through the Weekend...
Tomorrow and Sunday the forecast area may be more suppressed below upper-level shortwave ridging, but moisture values should still support at least a few isolated showers or storms with daytime heating.
Through Next Week...
The current pattern will break down over the next few days, resulting in a more progressive zonal flow pattern over the CONUS through the next work week. A few low pressure systems moving through the region and deeper moisture pooled in the Deep South may actually yield some heavy rainfall potential before the week is over. /OAJ/
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR flight categories will overall prevail at area TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Isolated convection will again be possible across the area this afternoon, but isolated to scattered convection will particularly be possible across the Delta region later this afternoon into this evening as a weak disturbance aloft moves east across the Mid-South region. If convection is indeed observed on-site, namely at KGLH & KGWO, it could briefly reduce both ceilings and visibilities to MVFR/IFR categories. Winds will subside this evening, becoming calm to light and variable around 3 knots overnight. /19/
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 95 69 94 70 / 20 20 0 0 Meridian 95 68 95 68 / 20 20 0 0 Vicksburg 94 68 95 70 / 20 20 0 0 Hattiesburg 95 68 96 70 / 20 20 0 0 Natchez 94 68 94 69 / 20 20 0 0 Greenville 93 68 94 69 / 20 20 0 0 Greenwood 95 67 96 69 / 20 20 0 0
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.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. &&
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OAJ/OAJ/19
NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion