Little Torch Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

821
FXUS62 KKEY 210240
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1040 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Surface through lower level ridging stretches across the
southeastern United States while a trough remains aligned over the
Bahamas. This is generating light to gentle northeast to easterly
breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters this evening. While
this evenings sounding indicated precipitable water has come down
to close to normal at ~1.8 inches, moisture was quite high below
850 mb with little if any inhibition and ample CAPE. This profile
and flow allowed late afternoon sea breeze activity to spread
southwestward, affecting a sizable portion of the Florida Keys.
Activity has since broken up and weakened. With that said,
isolated activity remains and the AMX radar indicates additional
activity upstream.
The Keys will remain trapped between the ridge to our north and
troughing over the Bahamas. This will maintain gentle to moderate
northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys. The trough is
expected to shift slightly westward overnight. This will likely
lead to some increase in lower level moisture and a slight uptick
in lower level forcing. Will maintain chance PoPs for the
overnight period. Temperatures will bottom out near 80 with dew
points holding in the mid 70s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The combination of a ridge stretching along the southeastern
United States and a trough aligned over the Bahamas will drive
generally gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes on Keys
waters overnight. Expect near normal shower and thunderstorm
coverage. Only minor adjustments made to first period wind wording
in the evening marine update.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 937 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight.
Surface winds will be gentle out of the northeast to east.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....AJP
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion