Lone Tree, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

049
FXUS63 KBIS 201132
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
632 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog, along with patchy dense fog, this morning.
- Temperatures warm back into the 70s and low 80s through the
  weekend, then remain mostly in the 70s next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Areas of fog are present across most of western through central
ND. However, patchy dense fog remains limited mainly to
locations west of Highway 83. Therefore, issued another SPS
until 9 am CDT/8 am MDT for areas where patchy dense fog is
present. Fog may linger through the morning, but visibility from
dense fog will likely improve by mid to late morning. Otherwise,
the forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
After an active period, much quieter weather is expected through
the next week. Still, there`s almost always something going on.
As such, fog has developed this morning mainly in areas west of
the low-level stratus deck that also received wetting rains.
Issued an SPS for patchy dense fog until 5 am CDT for much of
western and parts of central ND, mainly west of Highway 83.
As the stratus deck continues eroding eastward early this
morning, fog may simultaneously continue to expand eastward.
Will re-evaluate when the SPS expires at 5 am CDT. Fog should
dissipate by late morning.
Aforementioned low-level stratus will continue to erode from
west to east through the day today as surface low pressure over
the eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota very slowly lifts to the
northeast, and the mid-levels dry out. Encroaching lowly
amplified ridge will lead to a slight warming trend to finish
out the weekend. For today, that means highs will range from the
mid 60s east to mid 70s west, while highs will be mostly in the
70s east to low 80s west on Sunday as surface flow becomes
southerly.
Progged shortwave energy Monday keeps slowing down and looks
more disorganized as it approaches western ND. As a result, NBM
continues to maintain mentionable PoPs only in the far
southwestern corner of the state. Still, with low
non-mentionable PoPs, a few showers could really occur anywhere
in western ND.
Another lowly amplified ridge looks to pass through during the
middle of the week, otherwise zonal flow with occasional
northwesterly flow aloft is favored. This all translates to
fairly high confidence in near average to slightly above average
high temperatures through the workweek, with highs mostly in
the 70s and a few 80 degrees readings possible. NBM then favors
a cooling trend to finish out the week. The NBM 50th percentile
(highs mostly in the low 70s) is the warmer solution next
weekend, so there is more room for error on the cooler (60s)
versus higher (low 80s) side. Lows will be mostly in the mid 40s
to mid 50s this week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Areas of fog have developed this morning and are impacting much
of the state, with patchy dense fog confined mainly to areas
west of Highway 83. In addition to fog, low-level MVFR/IFR
stratus persists over most areas along and east of Highway 83.
Fog is expected to dissipate by late morning, while skies will
clear from west to east through the day today. VFR conditions
will prevail across most of western through central ND this
afternoon and evening before additional fog development is
possible tonight.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion