Loogootee, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

162
FXUS63 KLSX 070913
AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
413 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A steady warmup begins tomorrow and will continue through the
  end of the week. Temperatures are expected to reach 5 to 10
  degrees above normal by Wednesday and this will continue through
  at least Saturday, and possibly beyond.
- No meaningful precipitation chances are expected over the next
  week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
As we start off a new week, very few weather hazards appear to be on
the horizon for the foreseeable future. Mild and dry conditions are
expected today, and a steady warmup will begin tomorrow and continue
through the end of the week.
While a few patchy clouds have lingered overnight tonight, skies
have largely cleared in most areas as dry air settles into the area.
Satellite imagery reveals a large trough moving through the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, and this feature will maintain
it`s grip on the area for at least the next 24 hours. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure also continues to slide into the area from the
northwest, all but assuring that today will feature mild
temperatures, low humidity, and light winds. Expect highs in the mid
70s to near 80 degrees, followed by another morning with lows in the
mid 40s to near 50 degrees. Some patchy steam fog will be possible
along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers early this morning and
again tomorrow morning, but this is not expected to be particularly
impactful.
BRC
&&
.LONG TERM...  (Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Very little has changed regarding the long term portion of the
forecast, and confidence remains high that a steady warmup will
begun Monday and continue through the end of the week, with little
opportunity for needed rainfall.
Over the course of the week, an upper level ridge is expected to
slowly build across the central Plains, and gradually move eastward
before finally reaching the Mississippi Valley by the end of the
wee. Meanwhile, southerly flow will also return across the central
plains, although the more robust southerlies are not likely to
follow the ridge eastward. Meanwhile, a large area of surface high
pressure is expected to remain across the eastern half of the CONUS,
and while we will likely be situated along it`s western periphery,
this feature is likely to keep appreciable humidity shunted to our
west. All of this is to say that steady, persistent warming is on
the way, with temperatures climbing from slightly below to near
seasonal averages Monday and Tuesday (upper 70s to mid 80s), to
solidly above average Wednesday through Saturday (mid 80s to low
90s). This is supported by ensemble mean 850 temperatures
consistently near and above the 75th percentile per SPC sounding
climatologies, along with narrow forecast temperature spreads in the
NBM and LREF ensembles.
Not only this, but precipitation chances for the next week remain
rather low, due to both a lack of upper forcing and very limited
moisture. While ensembles do project some eastward transport of a
modified airmass around mid-week that may bring our precipitable
water values back to near 1 inch, which is right about average for
this time of year, it likely will not be enough to produce
meaningful precipitation in the absence of notable forcing
mechanisms. This is also corroborated by ensemble members, which
maintain a large majority of dry members for the next 7 days and
beyond, with only a smattering of precipitation-producing members
from mid to late week. We may see some showers reaching western
Missouri by Wednesday, but this will likely be as close as it gets.
Considering that the vast majority of our area has seen well below
50% of normal rainfall over the last month, and in some cases almost
no rain in that span, we can expect drought conditions to expand
and/or worsen over the next week. This is also likely to be
exacerbated by the increasing temperatures and low humidity, which
will help to drive more evaporation.
BRC
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAf period. A
limited chance (less than 20%) for steam fog exists at JEF/SUS/CPS
early this morning and again overnight, but this is not expected
to impact terminals. Otherwise, expect most clear skies with light
northerly winds that will gradually turn to the south by the end
of the period.
BRC
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX

NWS LSX Office Area Forecast Discussion