Lorenzo, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

258
FXUS65 KPIH 101952
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
152 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gradual cooling trend starts Thursday, warming returns Monday.
- Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
  Thursday through Sunday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Whatever showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon should
be limited to mountain areas and will have an early dissipation.
The unstable air and available moisture will be the trigger for
more showers and thunderstorms Thu and Fri afternoons and
evenings. Stability indices and moisture content is not
extremely high so do not expect any severe weather/flash
flooding from this scenario.
Wind gusting to nearly 35 mph in Pocatello, into the 25 to 30
mph range in others. This should decrease quickly this evening
and is not expected to return. Thunderstorm outflow would be the
strongest wind to expect.
Will today be the last day where the Snake River plain
experiences 80 deg F or more? Temperatures should drop and stay
in the 70s for the lower elevations, 50s and 60s for higher, and
stay that way. Overnight lows will be mild with the cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 139 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
As we head into the weekend, troughing looks to still be in place
over much of Eastern Idaho. This will keep our unsettled weather
pattern going with rain and thunderstorm chances continuing for
Saturday and Sunday. However, we may be a bit drier on Sunday as a
weak ridge passes through our area ahead of a low pressure system
moving into the Pacific Northwest early next week. Temperatures will
be quite mild on Saturday (dare I say even "cool"?) with highs in
the 60s and low 70s for most. The slightly drier conditions as the
ridge moves through on Sunday will help us all warm up a few degrees
for Sunday afternoon after starting the day in the 40s. Highs for
the first half of next week are forecast to remain in the low to mid
70s. Also in the first half of next week, we see some varying model
solutions to handling a trough moving onto the West Coast. The ECMWF
swings a trough through Washington and northern Oregon on Sunday
before moving and lifting northward and developing a low in
northwestern Montana late Monday. This solution keeps some high
elevation precipitation chances in the forecast for the Central
Mountains and Eastern Highlands early next week. The GFS on the
other hand is the wetter solution as develops a deeper low over
Oregon on Monday that moves eastward through Idaho on Tuesday. Both
models agree on drying out a bit by the middle of next week. We will
have to watch and see how models evolve over the next few days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
The bulk of isolated thunderstorm activity today looks to remain
outside of our forecast terminals. However, it`s a non-zero chance
for an outflow from thunderstorms to move through the KBYI and KSUN
areas between 8 PM and 1 AM. Those outflow winds would most likely
be around 35 to 40 kts. It will be a bit breezy outside of storms
today, too, with gusts around 20 to 25 kts. We will be watching for
some spotty showers overnight moving north out of Utah and passing
through DIJ after midnight, so have added some VCSH to the TAF
there. As the low moves farther east tomorrow, isolated storm
chances will increase for our TAF sites.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Not much thunderstorm activity expected this evening, mainly
limited to mountain areas in isolated coverage. The risk of
showers and thunderstorms increases over the next couple of
days, but won`t be getting much higher than isolated coverage
for thunderstorms and scattered for showers. With temperature at
Snake River plain elevations cooling into the 70s through the
weekend, and perhaps even upper 50s, it will be hard to get
humidity to dry to below 15 percent. Gusty wind this afternoon
in some locations should end early in the evening and is not
expected to return Thu or Fri.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...Messick

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion