Los Cuates, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

173
FXUS64 KBRO 101132
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
632 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Daily low to medium (30-50%) rain chances will continue across
most of Deep South Texas through the end of the week, through the
weekend into next week. An unseasonably moist airmass In
combination with diurnal instability and a lingering stationary
boundary, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop from the mid morning hours to early evening
hours each day across the region. Over the Gulf waters and near
the Lower Texas beaches, isolated activity is expected into the
evening and overnight hours. In general, the highest precipitation
chances each day will reside closer to the immediate coast, which
coincides with the highest precipitable water values. Given the
presence of high moisture content, pockets of brief heavy rainfall
cannot be ruled out with any showers or thunderstorms that
develop. This may result in nuisance flooding issues, mainly over
low-lying or flood-prone areas depending on where the activity
sets up. Rain chances look to decrease over the weekend as
subsidence increases aloft. Any activity should be limited to
mostly sea breeze activity during the early afternoon to early
evening hours.
Expect seasonable temperatures to continue through the next week
or so with highs in the low to mid 90s region wide, except upper
80s near the coast. In combination with the humidity, heat index
values are expected to range from 100 to 105 degrees. Fortunately,
increased cloud cover associated with any showers or
thunderstorms may help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than
forecast. A minor (level 1 of 4) heat risk will continue through
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Through 12z Thursday....The main weather concern for the terminals
through the 12z TAF period will focus on showers/thundershower
trends. Flying conditions are VFR with a few MVFR clouds as of this
update. The latest sfc obs, radar, and satellite data revealed a
cluster of showers over parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley
extending out into the Gulf Waters under a SCT-BKN deck of
stratocumulus and cumulus clouds with bases ranging between 2,000-
5,000 feet AGL. These clouds/showers are associated with a nearby
frontal boundary and weak mid-upper level perturbations.
Expectations according to radar, satellite, and weather model trends
suggest that showers/thundershowers will continue through this
morning in waves. Have VCSH at all sites through this morning to
account for this. Later this afternoon, convective trends amid
increased sfc based differential heating could increase. Have
vicinity thunder (VCTS) to account for this potential (again
coming in waves), particularly for KBRO and KHRL. A break in
activity could take place later this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Overnight tonight into Thursday morning (between
06z-12z/Thurs), another round of showers could develop. Have
Prob30 groups to acknowledge this potential.
Any showers or thundershowers that move over a TAF site will have
the capabilities of briefly reducing cigs/vsbys to MVFR/IFR and
could result in gusting variable (VRB) winds up to 35 kts.
Otherwise expect for VFR conditions to prevail with a few MVFR
cigs around through the forecast period.
Light and variable to calm winds this morning will develop out of
the east between 5-10 kts later this afternoon. Later tonight, winds
will trend towards light and variable to calm.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail with light to
moderate easterly winds and low to moderate seas. Medium to high
rain chances continue through the end of the week over the Gulf
waters and Laguna Madre. Locally enhanced winds and seas are
likely within any showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  78  92  77 /  70  50  80  70
HARLINGEN               93  74  93  74 /  60  20  70  40
MCALLEN                 95  77  95  77 /  60  20  70  40
RIO GRANDE CITY         95  74  95  74 /  50  20  50  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  81  88  81 /  70  60  80  80
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  77  90  77 /  60  40  70  60
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion